【亞洲債券】2021年10月基金評論

市場總覽:

10月,對停滯通膨風險和貨幣政策收緊的擔憂仍然主導金融市場。隨之而來的美國利率上升,以及中國高收益債房地產板塊的持續走跌,推動亞洲美元債市走低,摩根亞洲債券指數連兩個月呈現負報酬。

本月,大多央行重申他們認為當前通膨壓力在很大程度上是暫時的,隨著供應鏈問題緩解將會下降。然而,市場參與者反對鴿派立場,他們持續為主要央行的政策利率上調提早定價。在此背景下,儘管聯準會官員重申對升息的耐心,2年期和10年期美國公債殖利率本月分別上升22和6個基點,至 0.50% 和 1.55%。

美國公債殖利率走升拖累亞洲美元債表現,雖然投資級債信用利差的收緊有助於減輕利率影響,然而整體市場表現下滑0.3%。投資級主權債如菲律賓和印尼表現最佳,而房地產和消費區塊則表現疲軟。

然而,高收益債市再次出現明顯分歧,中國房地產產業持續傳出財務困境的消息導致中國高收益房地產區塊整體下跌逾17%。此外,以70個城市為基礎的新屋價格也於9月下降0.08%,為2015年以來首次出現單月下滑。

儘管如此,本月的消息並非全然負面。中國恆大集團上個月透過在寬限期到期前支付離岸債券逾期利息避免違約。此外,報導稱中國當局在 9 月底建議各大銀行第四季加快抵押貸款的審核速度。10月中旬,中國人民銀行表示,各部會與地方政府正努力幫助恆大重啟項目和處置資產,同時敦促債務發行人和股東遵守市場紀律,履行債務清償義務。

相較於中國高收益房地產區塊,其他高收益市場和產業的跌幅較為溫和-除了澳門娛樂產業之外,其表現也落後於總體高收益市場。由於福建省和澳門相繼於8、9月爆發新冠肺炎疫情,市場預期娛樂業收入復甦將放緩,因此承壓,澳門娛樂產業區塊因而走弱。

基金總覽:

10月份,本基金加碼中國高收益房地產板塊以及債券選擇是該區塊普遍表現不佳的主要因素,尤其是B評級資產表現落後。負面表現抵銷了中國金融區塊選債部位的收益。此外,本基金加碼印度高收益公司債以及亞洲當地貨幣債的部位-諸如新加坡幣以及印尼盾計價債券也貢獻了部分績效。

年初至今,亞洲債市經歷了充滿挑戰的市場環境。今年第一季,美國公債殖利率走升令市場表現承壓。此外,因為中國對槓桿的關注和各個產業的監管政策收緊,引發了投資人對於政府政策的不確定性。在此背景下,鑑於市場表現參差不齊,本基金在中國的債券部位成為影響相對表現的主要因素。具體而言,由於中國恆大在過去幾個月期間的大幅拋售影響市場情緒,本基金加碼中國房地產是主要影響基金的因素。較高的存續期間也帶來負面影響,儘管美國公債殖利率自今年4月起回落,減輕了此壓力。除此之外,本基金加碼中國以外的高收益債則表現優良,尤其是本基金加碼菲律賓公司債以及印尼房地產債也對基金績效有所貢獻。

未來展望:

在亞洲債券市場上半年充滿挑戰之後,隨著我們進入 2021 年下半年,一些不確定性將可能持續存在;美國聯準會的鷹派立場以及供應鏈緊縮導致的持續通膨壓力將可能使投資者注意力重新轉向美國利率表現。在亞洲,該地區與新冠疫情病毒的鬥爭持續拖累經濟增長,而中國監管政策緊縮和中國房地產債券市場的持續動盪也引發了市場表現相互影響的擔憂。

儘管如此,鑑於全球供應鏈瓶頸和中國成長動能放緩,全球復甦出現放緩跡象。重要的是,美國聯準會主席鮑威爾重申在勞動力市場好轉之前,央行將對升息保持耐心。此外,雖然經濟復甦成長正在放緩,但我們預計全球復甦不會脫軌。在亞洲,一些國家較高的疫苗接種率和新冠疫情感染率已達到頂峰,使得旅遊限制得以放鬆,從而降低了經濟增長的下行風險。也有更多跡象表明中國政府將調整其總體以及監管政策,以防止國家經濟急劇下滑。

 
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