【亞洲債券】2021年8月基金評論

市場總覽:

亞洲債券市場8月份繳出好表現,摩根亞洲債券當月上漲1.08%。儘管美國利率上升,但此影響被信用利差收斂所抵消。

月初,美國高於預期的7 月非農就業數據以及聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 官員中支持減少債券購買的呼聲越來越高。然而,隨著上個月美國消費者信心下降至十年低點,美國國債收益率隨後走低,加上Delta 病毒的傳播不斷擴大,打壓了市場對經濟前景的樂觀情緒。此外,債券投資者也將聯準會主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會 (Jackson Hole)提到縮減購債並不會造成債券的恐慌賣壓。總體來說,2年期美國公債殖利率在8月份上升3個基點至0.21%;10年期美國公債殖利率上升9個基點至1.31%。

亞洲經濟數據顯示出成長放緩的跡象,原因為中國出現Delta病毒感染者,使受影響地區出現重新實施嚴格的封鎖。雖然出口仍保持彈性,債券投資兩年複合成長率以及工業和服務業產出年增率分別下滑至2.8%(6 月:年增5.7%)和5.6%(6 月:年增6.5%)。綜合採購經理人指數降至48.9,低於前期52.4。然而,儘管經濟復甦放緩,中國政府仍繼續在幾個方面進行監管改革,推動產業走向共同繁榮。本月,中國政府發布了一套草案禁止不正當競爭和限制在技術領域使用用戶數據的規定,同時限制在線年輕人的遊戲時間。引發了中國股市部分產業的輪動。

然而,儘管消息好壞參半,但信用市場的風險情緒保持良好,受到預期全球復甦情況依然樂觀,且聯準會也將耐心等待升息時機。風險情緒的支持使亞洲美元債市的信用利差,尤其是高收益債利差收斂。

亞洲高收債市場的漲幅由中國金融板塊領漲。尤其是中國五家國有企業將戰略性投資華融集團的消息提振市場信心,預計將有助於抵消公司在2020年的虧損。此外,中國和印尼高收益地產債,以及印度金屬和礦業也有強勁表現。

然而,遊戲和通訊科技(TMT)表現相對落後,而防禦性強的市場,如韓國債市,表現也落後大盤。

基金總覽:

8月份,基金表現優異,主要受到加碼中國地產和金融債挹注。在中國金融領域,基金增持中國華融是主要的獲利因素,因為其債券在戰略性投資者將注資的正向消息傳出後反彈。而加碼中國高收益不動產也因價格觸底修正而大幅反彈。在其他地區,印尼和印度高收益企業債的資產配置提振績效,另外,減碼準主權債券影響基金表現。

年初至今,亞洲債市經歷了充滿挑戰的市場環境。今年第一季,美國公債殖利率走升令市場表現承壓。且因為中國對槓桿的控制和對國內社會問題的關注,引發了投資人對於政府政策的不確定性。在此背景下,由於中國恆大在過去幾個月期間的大幅拋售影響市場情緒,本基金加碼中國房地產是主要影響基金表現的原因。較高的存續期間也帶來負面影響,儘管美國公債殖利率自今年4月起回落,減輕了此壓力。然而,本基金加碼中國以外的高收益債則表現優良,尤其本基金增持印度高收益債及印尼的不動產抵押債也貢獻基金表現。

未來展望:

全球經濟成長速度放緩,但全球商業活動仍持續擴張。美國和歐洲,強勁的國內需求下,8 月份的製造業活動保持良好,低庫存繼續支持產量和新訂單的擴張。這些國家較不易重啟經濟活動限制,而且許多國家至少對其人口進行了部分疫苗接種,因此儘管最近 COVID-19 感染病例激增,但各國政府在很大程度上仍保持經濟開放。

儘管如此,國家和部門之間的差異仍然顯著,並且可能會加深鑑於宏觀經濟基本穩定,由於疫苗接種率低而導致更嚴格的 COVID-19 限制削弱消費者的信心並減緩許多新興市場國家的經濟活動。例如,中國的服務業採購經理人指數出現下滑,這是中國在積極的病毒遏制戰略的支持下,八個月來首次出現這種情況。好消息是情況已有所好轉,新增病例明顯下降,不少城市已經重啟開放的過程。但是在亞洲其他地區,馬來西亞、泰國、越南和菲律賓等國每日新增感染人數仍居高不下,可能會繼續阻礙服務產業的活動。

 
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