【亞洲債券】2021年7月基金評論

市場總覽:

亞洲債券市場7月份下跌,摩根亞洲債券指數當月下跌 0.42%。儘管美國利率下降,由於擔心全球新冠疫情捲土重來以及中國監管擴大收緊,風險趨避情緒上升,投資人情緒承壓。

本月,高度傳染性新冠變種病毒的持續傳播,和政策制定者的鴿派信號導致7月份美國公債 (UST) 的殖利率下降。10年期美國公債殖利率在7月份下跌25個基點至1.22%,而實質十年期殖利率(剔除未來十年通膨預期)降至歷史低點-1.18%。在美國經濟數據喜憂參半之際,美國公債(UST) 殖利率暴跌;雖然美國6月消費者物價指數(CPI) 通膨連續第五個月上升至5.40%,但製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)和工業成長低於預期。與此同時,聯準會主席鮑威爾在 7 月份的 FOMC 會議上稱美國經濟距離「實質性進一步進展」仍有「一段距離」,但並未給出具體的縮減購債時間。

在亞洲,最新的經濟數據顯示出成長放緩的跡象,因為亞洲各國持續與新一波的新冠疫情奮鬥,導致亞洲經濟體出現不同程度的封鎖。雖然出口仍保持彈性,但6月份製造業採購經理人指數顯示成長速度放緩。中國在7月份也發生了意外變化,中國人民銀行(PBOC)將存款準備金率下調50個基點。除了向經濟體系注入流動性外,中國當局在上個月季度政治經濟會議中也表示將對經濟提供更大的財政支持。

然而,中國寬鬆的貨幣和財政立場緩和了中國公司債市波動;雖然投資級債普遍受惠於美國利率下降,但中國政府對資訊科技和民間教育公司等產業的打擊引發了市場不安。中國房地產開發商的融資條件收緊也拖累了該產業的表現,中國恆大的負面新聞在本月加劇了這一情況。

在風險趨避的背景下,亞洲美元公司債利差擴大,高收益企業首當其衝。在高收益債中,中國高收益房地產經歷了下跌,因為負面的頭條新聞蔓延到其他產業。這與中國高收益金融和油氣公司債的強勁表現形成對比。除中國房地產外,由於市場對成長的擔憂,印尼和印度的高收益企業債券也普遍表現疲軟。

然而,投資級債券受惠於美國利率下降,投資級主權和準主權債表現佳。

基金總覽:

雖然基金較長的存續期間帶來正貢獻,但鑑於高收益債本月的表現不佳,績效受到拖累。具體而言,基金加碼中國高收益房地產是主要的影響因素,儘管該基金加碼中國華融抵銷損失,因中國華融在7月反彈。

年初至今,在美國利率波動加劇的挑戰下,該基金的表現落後基準指數,而中國對槓桿的控制和對國內社會問題的持續關注,引發了發行人陷入政府政策的不確定性。在此背景下,市場表現不一。由於中國恆大在 6-7 月期間的大幅拋售加劇了市場情緒,本基金對中國高收益房地產板塊的加碼是關鍵的拖累。同時對於中國政府隱性支持國企的質疑越來越多,也影響了部分企業表現。儘管如此,該基金在中國以外的高收益領域的曝險表現良好,尤其是在斯里蘭卡獲得流動性額度和新貸款的消息後,該基金加碼斯里蘭卡表現強勁,成為最大的績效貢獻來源。菲律賓和印尼的選債也緩和了年初至今表現不佳的情況。

未來展望:

在過去的一個月裡,對新冠疫情的擔憂成為首要問題,因為不僅在亞洲,成熟國家感染率的上升也抑制了經濟成長。Delta變種病毒的高傳染性為控制病毒帶來了挑戰。許多亞洲經濟體仍在與不斷增加的新冠疫情病例作鬥爭,因此需要實施相對嚴格的封鎖措施。儘管如此,我們預計經濟復甦將會隨著疫苗接種工作的持續而穩健發展,且企業和家庭也已經適應了新情況,降低了此類封鎖的經濟損失。採購經理人指數仍然存在持續強勁的擴張步伐。

鑑於宏觀經濟基本穩定,加上全球流動性充裕,我們對於亞洲公司債的基本面和風險偏好不變。我們注意到,中國政府努力控制房地產業槓桿,以及近期對科技巨頭和民間教育產業的打擊導致拋售壓力和波動。然而,我們認為最近的監管行動反映了政府推動更多社會平等和解決教育、醫療和居住成本的問題。這些並非在削弱特定公司或引發市場系統性風險。

此外,中國當局對貨幣和財政政策的寬鬆立場,反映了其提供有針對性的支持和防止經濟硬著陸;在7月的政治局會議上,政府承諾在2021年下半年加快使用地方政府債券,用於增加對基礎設施和社會的投資。

鑑於上述情況,我們謹慎加碼可以度過當前不確定性且目前表現疲弱的科技與金融債。中國房地產業由於目前對流動性和融資渠道的規範,我們可能還會考慮替換可能受到不利影響的標的。

 
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