【亞洲債券】2021年5月基金評論

市場總覽:

摩根亞洲債券指數上漲 0.48% 顯示亞洲美元債市相對保持穩定。債券利差支撐了正報酬率,而美國利率小幅下降也提振了市場表現。

由於美國總經環境喜憂參半,美國公債殖利率連續第二個月走低。二年期公債殖利率及十年期公債殖利率分別下降 2 個基點和 3 個基點。其中四月份就業數據遠低於預期,與彭博預期的非農就業人數新增 100 萬個新工作崗位相比,實際僅增加 266,000 人。另一方面,美國四月份消費者物價指數躍升至 4.2%,為 2009 年以來新高並高於預期。美國聯準會(FED)四月會議談話中透露出多位官員將在未來會議上討論央行調整大規模購債的問題,打壓市場情緒。然而在這兩種情況下,美國公債殖利率僅短暫上升,且聯準會之後表示通貨膨脹僅為暫時性現象,也舒緩市場情緒,美國公債殖利率再次下滑。

儘管美國數據有些令人失望,但全球復甦步伐仍持續,並提振對製成品的需求。從亞洲採購經理人指數持續走強可以看出亞洲持續受惠於外部需求的回升,四月出口也普遍上升。然而,一些亞洲國家的 COVID-19 疫情再起,也因此重啟社交距離限制措施,為該地區的經濟前景帶來不確定性。

在此混合背景下,亞洲債券在本月基本持平,而高收益債券表現優於投資級債券,主要因為受到更高的應計收入支持。也就是說,特殊因素繼續導致異常值的發生;隨著中國華融資產管理公司下跌,引發了政府對中國資產管理公司的深度擔憂,中國投資等級金融債持續表現不佳。

另一方面,斯里蘭卡主權國家自 3 月起又持續一個月強勁表現。

基金總覽:

五月份,本基金受益於其在高收益債券市場的加碼。高收益板塊中,基金加碼和中國高收益房地產債券的選擇增加了相對報酬,例如斯里蘭卡主權國家的適度加碼。印度債券的債券選擇和加碼(兩者皆是投資等級和高收益)也是主要貢獻者之一,因為印度債券在本月下旬COVID-19感染曲線逐漸平緩後再次出現增長現象。然而,基金表現仍受中國金融板塊債券拖累,拖累原因是本基金加碼的華融部位。

年初至今,本基金較長的存續期間策略,特別是透過加碼長天期類主權債和金融債,為主要影響績效原因,因為美國公債殖利率大幅上升。此外,中國地區的選債也影響基金表現;尤其是加碼華融債券受到四月份賣壓影響而拖累表現。選擇與中國地方政府有連結之發行的曝險因為擔心政府支持國有企業也表現不佳。反之,基金加碼印尼房地產債、斯里蘭卡主權債與菲律賓公司債也帶來正貢獻,則部分抵銷上述的負面影響。

未來展望:

年初至今發生了許多事件,對亞洲美元債市產生影響。雖雖然全球經濟復甦提升投資人的風險偏好,但大幅上升的美國公債殖利率使債券市場承壓。在亞洲,中國政府相關發行人的負面消息不斷,以及最近的高收益房地產開發商,也導致了個別債券更大的表現不一和波動。

儘管存在這些挑戰,但亞洲美元債市表現相對很好,因為市場沒有廣泛的拋售壓力和企業對新發行債券的剛性需求。展望未來,我們認為持續的全球復甦將繼續為亞洲債券發行人提供建設性的營運背景。全球經濟仍持續復甦,已開發國家如美國的良好經濟成長歸功於疫苗施打進展順利和支持性財政及貨幣政策。經濟活動回升刺激商品需求,也支持亞洲國家的製造業活動。強勁經濟表現也在亞洲房地產行業反映,該區房地產市場普遍走強。尤其是在中國,儘管針對房地產開發商的融資核准和購房者的房地產規則都採取了更嚴格的措施,但住宅房地產銷售和房價成長仍然強勁。我們希望能長期看待這些這些措施,推動更嚴格的市場紀律,雖然自這些規則實施以來,信用指標的改善已經從許多房地產開發商中看到。

但是,我們也注意到中國更嚴格的融資規則,例如「三條紅線」對中國房地產開發商的要求,可能會對實力較弱的開發商施加壓力,從而導致更高的市場特殊風險。綜上所述,我們持續在市場修正時尋找買點,然而,我們仍對中國債市小心謹慎,因為中國正在進行的政策調整導致特殊風險較高。此外,亞洲經濟復甦不一也會造成表現上的差異。

五月,有鑑於美國公債殖利率的回落,我們也減少以長天期類主權債部位來提升基金存續期間的策略。但我們也認為美國公債曲線反映了美國許多好消息,鑑於美國經濟強勁,我們認為大幅下跌的空間也將有限。

同時,我們繼續參與發行價值更高的新債券,而菲律賓公用事業曝險下降。

 
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