【亞洲債券】2021年4月基金評論

市場總覽:

四月份,由於美國公債殖利率回落,固定收益市場表現回穩。然而,不確定性的因素影響亞洲美元債市,摩根亞洲債券指數當月報酬0.15%。

四月份,美國十年期公債殖利率下降約11個基點至1.63%,因為債券交易員對一系列美國經濟數據優於預期的消息態度趨於平淡。在四月份美國聯準會公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀要中,聯準會證實經濟活動正在復甦,通膨壓力增加。聯準會表示會維持貨幣政策不後,投資人對貨幣政策轉變的疑慮降低。

在亞洲地區,經濟數據也顯示經濟正在復甦。亞洲國家的製造業活動依舊強勁,三月份亮眼的採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示國際貿易仍繼續支撐大多數亞洲國家工廠活動強力回彈。中國第一季GDP成長率表現良好,年增18.3%,雖然受到較低基期所帶動。

樂觀的總體市場環境支撐了亞洲高收益美元債市的表現,儘管中國高收益債券市場受到中國華融資產管理司(中國財政部掌握主要股權)之債券強力賣壓拖累,表現較平淡。賣壓主要起源於該公司無法按時在四月份揭露2020年報。此外,中國投資等級金融債投資人信心降低。

整體而言,亞洲投資等級公司債下跌0.83%。印度投資等級公司債也表現不佳,因為投資人對新冠疫情確診病例增加感到擔憂。

相反地,亞洲高收益債券表現相當不錯,報酬率1.26%,主要受益於斯里蘭卡與國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)簽訂5億美元的貸款協議。在高收益公司債中,金屬、採礦與房地產債(包含中國)也表現亮眼。

基金總覽:

四月份,中國債券部位拖累基金表現,而基金加碼之華融債券受強烈賣壓影響,成為主要拖累因素。然而,我們會繼續持有,由於其對於債市的重要性(從華融的規模與它對其他國有企業的影響而言)與未來12至18個月充足的流動性,顯示目前市場的反應是過度反應。基金加碼中國房地產跟印尼公司債帶來正貢獻。基金加碼印尼主權債與類主權債也表現良好,主要受惠於美國公債殖利率下降。

年初至今,本基金較長的存續期間策略,特別是透過加碼長天期類主權債,為主要影響績效原因,因為美國公債殖利率大幅上升。此外,中國地區的選債也影響基金表現。尤其是加碼華融債券受到四月份賣壓影響而拖累表現。另外,基金加碼之中國房地產債也使基金表現承壓,因為負面消息降低市場信心。反之,基金加碼印尼房地產債、斯里蘭卡主權債與菲律賓公司債也帶來正貢獻,則部分抵銷上述的負面影響。

未來展望:

年初至今發生了許多事件,對亞洲債市產生影響。雖然全球經濟復甦提升投資人的風險偏好,但大幅上升的美國公債殖利率使債券市場承壓。最近,印度與許多亞洲國家的疫情再次爆發使市場擔憂增加,也顯現了全球經濟復甦不均的問題。

雖然近期負面消息較多,我們認為更為強勁的經濟狀況會拉抬亞洲公司的表現。全球經濟仍持續復甦,已開發國家如美國的良好經濟成長歸功於疫苗施打進展順利。儘管亞洲新冠疫情確診人數增加,我們不認為這會拖累全球經濟復甦進度,也不會出現去年經濟大幅衰退的狀況,因為公司對疫情有了較多準備,且相應的封鎖措施將有望控制疫情蔓延。

綜上所述,我們持續在市場修正時尋找買點。然而,我們仍對中國債市小心謹慎,因為儘管中國政府對金融體系中的債務有更嚴格的規範,有助增強市場信心與債券體質,不確定性而持續存在。此外,亞洲經濟復甦不一也會造成表現上的差異。

因此,我們會持續小心監控這些風險,且當我們認為近期的表現疲軟起因於過於擔憂基本面時,會選擇性地加碼。

同時,我們也減少了高收益債的部位,特別是在印尼金屬和採礦債券,因為近期的良好表現後獲利了結。然而,相較於亞洲投資級債,我們仍偏好亞洲高收益債,因為先前的利差收斂幅度優於美國與歐洲高收益債。

有鑑於美國公債殖利率的回落,我們也減少以長天期類主權債部位來提升基金存續期間的策略。

 
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