【亞洲債券】2021年3月基金評論

市場總覽:

全球通膨議題在3月份持續發酵,全球利率上升。美國利率上升影響亞洲債券市場,摩根亞洲債券指數當月下跌0.39%。

美國總統拜登簽署了1.9兆美元的新冠疫情援助法案,其中,數兆美元為改善基礎建設和氣候變遷,投資人認為通膨將持續升溫。未來五年通膨預期躍升至2008年以來最高水準。同時,十年期美國公債殖利率從去年3月份歷史低點0.31%大幅回升,今年3月份上升34個基點(較去年同期上升了83個基點)。第一季升至1.74%,為2020年1月以來最高水準。

亞洲國家逐步推出新冠肺炎疫苗的過程中,市場情緒樂觀,經濟數據整體而言是正向的。中國的主要經濟指標,例如工業生產和零售銷售在2021年前兩個月達到史無前例的30%年成長率。採購經理人指數也顯示製造業在亞洲多數地方持續擴張。

全球經濟成長的看法實際上支撐了風險情緒,亞洲美元債供應量相較上月回升(主要為投資級債),整體利差收斂,有助於緩衝美國利率上升所帶來的影響。

整體而言,投資級債的跌幅較小。不同評等及產業的債券表現相對平均,儘管科技、媒體產業表現有些落後。隨著特殊的負面債券事件出現,中國地方或區域性政府相關的債券也成為表現不佳的主要債券之一。

然而,受到新聞的影響,高收益債的表現有明顯的分歧。一方面,在斯里蘭卡宣布中國已批准與該國之間的100億元人民幣互換額度,以減輕其短期外部流動性限制後,斯里蘭卡主權債上漲。然而,由於部分房地產開發商的盈利意外下降,中國高收益房地產債表現不佳。此外,因擔憂特定公司信用狀況,印尼消費品和金屬、採礦公司表現疲軟。

基金總覽:

3月份,基金加碼中國高收益房地產債影響績效表現。基金整體存續期增加也對績效造成一定影響,儘管利差收斂有助緩解此情況。此外,基金加碼印尼房地產和斯里蘭卡主權債也帶來正面貢獻。

今年以來,由於美國利率上升,基金增加存續期間一部分是因為基金加碼長期準主權債和金融債。儘管基金對高收益公司債的增持幅度較高,然而,高收益債的績效表現不一,導致結果好壞參半。由於負面新聞降低投資人對中國高收益房地產的興趣,此外,基金對一家中國地方政府債曝險也影響績效。然而,基金在印尼高收益房地產債的增持以及對斯里蘭卡主權國家和菲律賓公司的增持為績效帶來正貢獻。

未來展望:

一年前經濟活動出現史無前例的崩盤之後,近期在新冠疫苗接種和政策支持下,全球經濟強勁反彈。除經濟數據外,市場關注拜登政府最新的2兆美元基礎建設計劃的進展,雖然預計將在八年內推出,但該提案最終是否將以原形通過仍存在不確定性,因此這可能使市場樂觀情緒存在不確定性。

在這種環境下,隨著投資者衡量新冠疫情後經濟的實力,進而評估主要央行貨幣政策前景,美國利率的波動性仍然很高。在亞洲美元債券市場中,中國政府重新將重點放在債務管理上,引發投資人對政府支持國有企業和地方政府債的質疑,而更嚴格的融資規則也對體質較弱的公司債造成壓力。

儘管債券市場近期受到利空消息影響,但我們認為全球經濟復甦將進一步支撐亞洲債券的發展。預計整體違約率將保持在較低水準,且中國政府將繼續管理系統性風險的發生。

亞洲債券,特別是公司債,由於存續期間較短、殖利率較高,仍可能表現的較已開發市場好,然而,近期的疲軟表現,使其估值具吸引力。我們也認為,投資人已經反映了美國的利多消息,未來幾個月美國利率的上升可能會受到壓抑。

在這種環境下,我們將維持加碼高收益公司債。我們預計高收益債券的表現將優於大盤,因為它們較高的殖利率和利差收斂空間可為近期美國利率的上行壓力提供緩衝。

3月份,我們主要透過投資級準主權債將存續期間從0.4年提高至0.6年。

隨著中國“三條紅線”改革的實施,我們將汰弱留強,轉換中國房地產的持債。

 
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