【美國優質債】2021年2月基金評論

市場總覽:

2月份,美國風險性資產因刺激法案及企業財報優於預期而走高,但在本月最後一週波動上升,由於美國公債殖利率快速上升,影響了股票和債券的報酬。

美國中長期公債殖利率2月份持續攀升;10年期公債殖利率上升33個基點至1.44%,而30年期公債殖利率上升30個基點至2.17%。

2月份,投資級債因刺激法案及企業財報優於預期而利差收斂,但由於市場拋售美國公債,導致投資級債下跌。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數2月份超額報酬55個基點,利差收斂6個基點至86 bps。然而,由於美國公債遭到拋售,該指數下跌1.74%。

2月份,各產業超額報酬表現不一;以能源相關(132 bps)最高,其次是基礎工業(89 bps),而主權債(-95 bps)及超主權債(-2 bps)落後。年初至今的報酬以當地政府機關(203 bps )最高,主權債落後(-116 bps)。

投資級債市場2月新發行1,390億美元,高於2020年2月970億美元,但低於1月發行量。

投資級債券市在2月持續流入新資金180億美元,年初至今已流入430億美元。

基金總覽:

2月份,基金在天然氣配送和電信通訊業的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻3個和2個基點。

另外,基金在軟體服務和加碼政府擔保債券拖累基金表現,分別影響1個基點。

年初至今,基金在航空運輸和天然氣配送的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻4個和3個基點。

另外,基金在房地產和銀行業的選債則拖累表現,分別影響2個及1個基點。

未來展望:

我們持續在10年期公債和30年期公債的曲線中看到機會。

− 未來有限的政策空間可能為一個風險。

− 然而,基本面仍支撐市場,我們認為未來市場可能會有更好的表現。

− 在這樣的環境下,我們認為產業和債券選擇仍是重要的。

− 具體而言,我們預計2021年投資級債的估值將保持區間波動,而我們將策略性地調整配置。

我們持續在10年期公債和30年期公債的曲線中看到機會。

− 企業債券曲線的長端相對於短端陡峭。

− 長天期債券的外國需求不斷增加,我們預計其發行量至2021年將減少。

新冠疫情仍然是市場的另一個主要風險。

− 儘管經濟有所改善,但我們近期仍看到部份裁員的消息。

− 如果經濟回復到常態的時間超出市場預期,我們預計企業將可能被降評,尤其是小型企業;大型企業則仍保持獲利。

 
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