摘要
第三季聯準會啟動降息、關稅政策噪音略減，市場陸續反映各項利多，帶動股債資產齊揚，但景氣趨緩與就業市場降溫，以及亞洲下半年出口走緩風險，加上股市估值來到相對高點，為第四季投資市場帶來警訊，瀚亞投信提供第四季投資建議與建議基金清單。
瀚亞投信投資長林如惠展望第四季全球股債投資，由於降息、關稅等多數利多消息大多已經反應，且估值偏高，第四季相對可能呈現震盪整理行情。全球經濟維持溫和成長，貨幣政策偏向寬鬆，有利中長期股市表現，因此看好「股優於債」的態度不變，惟分散配置相形重要，短期股市可能進入整理，建議分批布局。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/09。
以美國來看，就業市場降溫、短期通膨預期仍高，9月聯準會已降息一碼，市場預期12月仍有降息機率，股市估值反映出高成長的預期，目前美股估值已到相對高點，接下來景氣成長可能進入降溫期。而亞洲上半年因提前拉貨效應帶動出口強勁，下半年製造業與出口將走緩，亞洲市場都有大幅降息的潛力，目前股市估值相對合理，提高布局優勢。
債市：降息周期啟動，固定收益資產各具魅力
預料第四季公債殖利率將因降息預期而下滑，增加固定收益產品收益吸引力，各有投資機會。整體投資建議以成熟國家信用債為主，作為「高品質收益」來源；新興市場債則是選擇性布局，預期當地債將有表現。
隨著美國就業數據放緩，以及聯準會降息，美債殖利率也出現緩降，預計未來一季走勢因聯準會降息預期區間震盪；而大部分國家對等關稅稅率相較4月份下降，加上企業獲利穩健，使得信用債走勢得以持續。看好成熟國家信用債的原因包括，其需求與供給的技術面優勢，抵銷評價面偏貴的壓力，加上有總體經濟溫和的基本面作為後盾支持。信用債違約風險可控，預期年底約3%～5%，基本情境下明年可望進一步降低。
對於整體債市展望，建議佈局掌握三大重點：(1)中短天期、高品質、防禦性；(2)偏好信用品質改善、評價合理的BB/B級債券，兼顧債信與收益；(3)美債仍具吸引力，但歐洲與新興市場亦可尋找結構性機會。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/09。
股市：關稅疑慮退散、降息利多
隨著關稅疑慮漸去、財報強勁以及FED降息啟動，市場對經濟增長前景的信心增加，持續上調S&P 500指數今明兩年的每股盈餘並同步上調本益比區間。根據高盛證券預估，2025年的EPS年增率為7%，2026年的EPS年增率為7%，主要券商持續上調今明兩年每股盈餘及本益比。
已開發市場亦看好歐洲及日本。其中，俄烏達成停火或和平協議，預料將對歐洲經濟和歐元有利，至於歐洲與美國達成重大貿易協議，不確定性消除。日股方面，新的貿易協議大幅下調汽車關稅，有助於提升GDP成長率，貿易協定達成後，日股創新高，但評價仍合理，盈餘與評價仍有向上空間。
新興市場股市則是各具題材，其中台股近期評價推升，反映包括1. AI軍備競賽需求 2. 關稅政策 3. 美國利率政策等樂觀情緒，其中AI供應鏈評價已創近五年新高，資金不僅追捧AI相關標的，相關次產業本益比也攀升。台股後續仍需觀察半導體關稅對台灣產業影響，除AI產業外，Non AI產業復甦狀況也比預期差，預期第四季仍會被檢視，景氣以及產業趨緩機率大，看法維持中性。
印度8月宣布調降GST稅率，為經濟刺激再添柴火。以目前印股修正，搭配通膨持續創低，降息可望延續至2026年，第四季股市有迎來re-rating的空間。
中國短期因AI效應推升股市，另有財政刺激、消費品補貼（國補）題材，其目的偏向是「托底」，而非「加速」，第四季是否加強更多的刺激經濟方案相對可期，若有大力道的財政刺激或寬鬆的貨幣政策等，可能改變陸股的走勢基調。2026年經濟成長可能略為降溫，仍有房地產泡沫、人口老化、生產力提升等壓力。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/09
2025年第四季精選基金清單
資料來源：瀚亞投信
更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).