摘要
七月初美國關稅政策的冷靜期將至，在美元趨貶、美元流出及資產避險的需求下，非美資產有可能大展鴻圖？瀚亞投信提供第三季投資建議與建議基金清單。
瀚亞投信投資長林如惠表示，中美進入談判有初步共識，研判美國經濟陷入衰退的機率降低，但是今年股市高低點非常難預測，建議投資人保持投資、多元分散，未來3-6個月預期短期噪音不減，但中長期向上布局。
她建議投資人放遠，雖然美國政策反覆、可能導致市場短期大震盪，但美國經濟衰退機率偏低，企業獲利展望正成長，將支撐股市表現，且第三季末有機會降息，建議投資人勿因恐懼而空手，中期市場可望維持向上趨勢。
資產配置則建議往美國以外地區分散，歐洲、日本與新興市場就是優先選擇，目前評價相對低，本益比相對於成熟市場評價處於20年低點，加上美元偏弱、亞幣升值趨勢持續，以歷史經驗來看，新興市場在美元偏弱的情況下，其資產表現將相對較成熟市場優異；建議適時搭配債券資產降低震盪風險。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/05。
債市：利率利差反彈宜佈局 成熟信用債優先
受總經數據、關稅變數所影響，第三季債券市場具不確定性高，但具備收益吸引力，且波動相對股票低，利率/利差若有反彈，仍是布局機會，第三季建議以成熟國家信用債為主，搭配新興市場債布局。
美國公債雖然失去AAA主權評等，但市場需求仍大且具備特殊性，後續可觀察美國財政赤字與政治風險，預期十年期公債未來一季仍會震盪；在高收益率環境下，公司債比公債對於外資更具吸引力，美公司債利差有小幅走高風險，第四季可望因降息預期而再收斂。至於新興市場債券則較看好當地債，具備通膨放緩、央行降息、貨幣升值等題材。
由於未來市場不確定性高，投資建議以高品質、短天期、分散布局、鎖定收益及較長投資期間等五大方向為主。對債市影響方面，風險性資產將區間震盪、殖利率風險溢價仍高，利率進一步向上空間有限；投資對策方面，除了建議分散並且高品質債，存續期也不宜過長。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/05。
股市：中性偏樂觀 印度經濟數據報喜
經歷第二季市場震撼，股市急速修正後急速反彈，評價仍不算便宜。整體股市看法中性偏樂觀，成熟市場看好美國與歐洲，尤其歐洲又優於美國；新興股市則看好台灣與印度，中國相對中性。
其中，歐洲股市往往在美股震盪期間表現較佳，統計自1971年共55次，歐股在美股、美債及美元三跌期間，展現安全資產的特性，資金明顯往歐股移動。日本名目GDP穩健成長，且年輕世代薪資有成長動能，讓整體經濟面有持續向上優勢。
印度總經數據相對樂觀，PMI指數來到10個月以來新高，通膨數據4月份下滑至6年來低點，預計今年還有2-3次降息機會。根據印度統計局4月底調查，製造資本支出相較於去年逆勢增加，受惠於中國、東南亞國家轉單效應，1-3月季度成長來到14個季度以來新高，51%公司獲利優於預期。
台股方面，預料為短多中空格局，第三季看法較為中性，族群與個股(如AI供應鏈)有反彈空間。經歷上半年美國關稅政策提前拉貨、造成淡季不淡，因此需留意下半年可能旺季不旺。新台幣雖可能持續出現強勢升值，資金將進一步回流台灣，但第三季開始關稅實質影響將開始反映，再者，半導體以及電子產品課稅政策尚未明朗，研判將壓抑指數表現。
產業部分，看好AI伺服器、邊緣應用、網通，以及景氣循環產業中的航運、工具機、金融(金控)，其中，AI產業2025年以來業績仍是產業中最佳，AI伺服器GB平台對台系供應鏈進入明顯實質階段，第三季出貨將進入高峰。因亞洲貨幣表現差異大，以出口為導向的台灣相關產業將面臨競爭力轉弱，則為長期觀察重點。
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2025/05
2025年第三季精選基金清單
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