摘要
美國總統川普拋出的關稅戰,上半年在全球市場掀起滔天巨浪,7/5即將屆臨高額關稅暫緩90天期限,近期又有美債遭到降評事件,各種市場變數亂拳盡出,對於投資人資產表現帶來不小衝擊。
信評機構穆迪(Moody’s)於5/16調降美債信評至Aa1,先前於2023/8及2011/8月也分別遭到惠譽、標普降評。
挑戰一、美債降評:經濟數據才是關鍵
挑戰二、稅改與衰退:適度配置美國投資等級債
目前美國就業數據好壞參半,但不可否認未來關稅將對貿易量帶來一定衝擊,在這樣商業前景的不確定性下,企業可能放慢招聘而拖累就業數據。
瀚亞投資表示,回顧過去50年間,股市只有7個年度跌逾10%,機率為14%,相對於美股大盤,投資級債在股市大跌時,能表現更加穩定,發揮降低風險的效益,扮演好最佳對抗風險的角色。
結論:布局優質公司債券 配置不可或缺
在未來經濟前景仍不確定的情勢下,建議選擇美國投資等級債券資產,瀚亞投資-優質公司債基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金)具備下列優勢,透過經理團隊精選好債,聚焦篩選美國、歐洲等大企業及政府債;再以波動度表現來看,本基金各期間年化波動度皆優於同類型中位數,排名同類型前1/2,顯示嚴控基金信評與風險,在殖利率具吸引力階段布局,同時兼顧資產防禦。


資料來源:瀚亞投信,基金資料截至2025/3/31
平均信用評級計算方式:為根據本基金之各信評等級加權平均計算而得。加權平均採簡單加權平均方式,即將各信用評級由高至低給予不同分數後,依本基金於各信用評級之分布及比重加權後所得之分數得出相對應之最接近信用評級或是信用評級區間。投資標的信用評級方式:個別投資標的信用評級為參考國際信用評等公司之意見。部分當地貨幣債券可能因沒有國際信用評級而被列為無信用評級(Non-Rating),惟不代表無當地信用評級, 亦不完全表示該個別債券之真正信用狀況、基金或投組之平均信用評級可能與只計算債券部位之信用評級略有不同。基金之平均信用為該特定日期之狀況,可能隨時點及基金策略不同而有變化。平均到期殖利率計算方式:係假設基金投資組合中各資產持有至到期所獲得的收益,佔投資組合總市值而計算之年均報酬率。平均到期殖利率不代表基金報酬率。投資標的信評揭示相關比重及納入計算之資產項目如上。

資料來源:Lipper,瀚亞投信整理,同類型採理柏環球-美元公司債,台灣主級別,美元總報酬,截至2025/4/30。
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