【Q3投資展望】預見轉機 新平衡配置應對第三季波動

第二季全球面臨通膨壓境,全球經濟復甦受到俄烏戰爭延長賽、各國央行轉鷹派立場、殖利率上彈、供應鏈斷鏈等利空影響,第三季恐持續面臨上述挑戰。

展望第三季投資市場,瀚亞投資(新加坡)首席投資長馬浩德(Bill Maldonado)表示,美國等成熟市場經濟體處於後景氣循環的過渡期,現在斷言經濟衰退仍言之過早。他認為,未來升息可能使美國經濟成長陷入衰退,而新興經濟體面臨輸入性通膨挑戰,下半年需留意各國央行鷹派貨幣政策下的經濟變數,尤其第三季局勢動盪,建議保持靈活的投資策略。

瀚亞投資(台灣)展望第三季,通膨可望第三季觸頂回落,利空逐步鈍化,亦有機會在波動中尋找轉機標的,提醒投資人採取「多元資產+平衡分散」策略。
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資料來源:瀚亞投信,2022/6

股市:美國、日本、印度長線買點到

美國整體通膨可望在第三季開始緩步回落,可望解除因大幅升息力道而導致經濟衰退的疑慮,股市轉機可望發生在第三季。

整體而言,修正過後的美國科技股與印度市場,值得投資人逢低進場布局。其中,美國企業2022及2023年的盈餘年增率可達8%及6%,景氣持續增長而非進入衰退。鑑於庫存修正已開始成為共識,但因結構性的利多因素並未改變(如雲端、AI、電動車及自駕車、5G及物聯網),預料循環性的修正結束後,仍會回到結構性成長軌道;另看好升息環境中的美國高股利成長公司表現。

成熟股市另看好日本,挾著寬鬆貨幣政策環境、弱勢日圓趨勢,加上企業獲利盈餘好轉、股市本益比長期偏低等條件,有機會持續維持強勢表現。

新興市場則首選印度,總經與產業數據明顯已經走出疫情的影響外,更逐漸回到原本新興市場高速成長的趨勢上。印度央行為強勁增長下可能的通膨預先做升息動作可謂短空長多。

債券:殖利率達金融海嘯後相對高點

固定收益資產估值已較今年初更有吸引力,尤其是美國信用債,美國投資級債因殖利率上升及利差擴大而增加吸引力,美國投資級債殖利率超過4%以上,非投資等級債更超過7%,均已來到金融海嘯後的相對高點。依照歷史經驗,在目前殖利率水準進場投資,後一年投資報酬分別達到雙位數的報酬收益,長期投資將更有利。

公債殖利率下半年仍有上行壓力,但預期漲勢將不若上半年,信用債利率風險下滑,惟景氣放緩下,需要留意公司債的信用變化;至於非投資等級債的淨利差已處於長期平均以上,足以彌補違約損失。再從資金面來看,近期資金回流陸續全球非投等債,例如美元非投等債近期流入36億美元,為今年最大的淨流入。

2022Q3推薦基金清單
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資料來源:瀚亞投資,2022/6

 
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