【第四季台股展望】 類股獨強時代不再 台股攻守這樣做

甫進入第四季,在國際情勢與高基期雙重壓力下,台股隨即面臨劇烈修正,電金傳產族群賣壓出籠,第四季格局是多或空,誰能勝出?瀚亞台股研究團隊提供最新展望。

多空臉色 得看4大觀察指標

瀚亞台股研究團隊認為,第四季台股須注意4大觀察指標:(1) 美國聯準會動向、(2)重要經濟指標、(3)股市評價、(4)疫情風險追蹤。 隨著FED討論縮減QE規模及未來升息進度,加上台灣外銷訂單將面臨去年度高基期影響,預料第四季台股仍將是高檔震盪整理格局。然而,縮減購債並非等同於緊縮,預計貨幣寬鬆的流動性環境不變,將繼續支撐股市行情;但須關注美國就業數據與通膨等重要經濟指標,美國何時升息仍是關鍵。

從產業發展來看,台灣企業中長線競爭力及獲利成長性可期,造就台股持續偏多格局,惟時序進入第四季,將面臨到去年同期高基期影響,預估指數將是高檔震盪整理格局為主,若出現較大修正,將創造另一次中長線良好買點。

多元族群輪動 看好七大產業

電子股或傳產股獨強時代已經過去,轉為多元族群輪動格局,看好包括:晶圓代工、ABF載板、車用電子、資料中心/伺服器、鋼鐵、運動紡織及壽險為主金融股等七大族群。看好產業亮點與原因如下:

ABF產業:受惠半導體製程升級,將持續供不應求至2023年,主要終端需求含括高速運算、伺服器、5G基地台、AI、物聯網、自駕車等。台灣具備完整產業鏈,將於本次產業循環中顯著受惠。

車用電子:車用半導體元件進入高度成長期階段,全球功率半導體市場 2020-2025 年需求將自 367 億美元成長至 524 億美元,主要成長動能為電動車、工業、新能源發電等。

鋼鐵:受惠於疫情復甦,歐美鋼鐵回補庫存力道強勁,帶動鋼價持續攀升,歐盟、印度均推出基建計畫。世界鋼鐵協會預估,全球鋼鐵需求成長率2021 年增長 5.8%,2022年將繼續成長 2.7%。

運動紡織:預期各國陸續解封後,將加大品牌廠庫存回補力道。預期美國後續返校季及聖誕節的銷售數字,將會更為亮眼。

 

【第四季精選推薦】菁華追成長 速配理財通

2021第四季嚴選兩檔台股基金,搭配攻守皆宜,適合定期定額,或逢市場修正時單筆分批布局。

瀚亞菁華基金

基金特色:著重Bottom-up的選股策略,挑選具有長線趨勢的個股,並搭配短線具有題材性的個股以維持投資組合的攻擊性。

推薦理由:經理人操作風格靈活快速,產業配置不受限,盤面主流選股明確,積極追求超額報酬,盤勢上漲時凸顯出基金攻擊力道。
1-2021Q4_TWequity

資料來源:Lipper,2021/9/30。同類型分類採用投信投顧公會-國內股票-一般型(79檔)。

瀚亞理財通基金

基金特色:股債平衡操作、電子傳產各半,目前持股約七成。傳產類股占比50%以上,在低波動下力求報酬最大化,攻守皆宜。

推薦理由:基金年化波動度低於同類型基金平均值(截至2021/8,SITCA),市場震盪時展現防禦特性,適合第四季台股基期相對高時布局優選。
2-2021Q4_TWequity

資料來源:Lipper,2021/9/30。同類型分類採用投信投顧公會-國內股債平衡型(16檔)。

 
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