【第四季投資展望】 減債恐慌來襲對策 提高多重資產覆蓋率

十月股市大震盪,「減債恐慌」已成為第四季全球最大不確定性,美國十年期公債殖利率彈升,與其盲目陷入恐慌情緒,不妨先回顧2013-2014年各類資產經歷減債期間表現,第四季做好因應策略,守住全年投資收益。

觀往知來 回顧2014年減債經驗

根據瀚亞投資最新展望,第四季多頭尚未結束,但應居高思危,參考過去減債期間,成熟市場普遍走揚,但新興市場表現落差極大。看好美國、台股,亦建議加入價值股優勢的日本股票,看好市場從成長轉向價值所帶來的投資機會。新興股市則須慎選標的,看好基本面、企業獲利兼備的印度股市。

債市方面,2014年利率走低環境,較長存續期間債券相對有利,高收益債利差維持低檔,看好隨著經濟持續復甦,高收益債走升;新興市場美元債普遍走揚,本地債表現落差大,則需慎選。

股市展望:多頭不變,成熟市場較平穩

● 美國股票:科技創新推動企業利潤增長,成為美股最大長線動能,S&P 500獲利可望持續走升至 2024 年。

● 印度股票:逐步走出疫情,企業營運情況向上、資金寬鬆政策挹注,且企業獲利創新高,未受疫情與全球擾動所影響,股市位階仍在合理範圍。

● 日本股票:歷史經驗顯示,過去縮減購債期間,美元指數走強、日幣連帶走貶,有利於日股表現,日本價值股更具潛力。

● 台股:電子股或傳產股獨強時代已經過去,轉為多元族群輪動格局,看好包括:晶圓代工、ABF載板、車用電子、資料中心/伺服器、鋼鐵、運動紡織及壽險為主金融股等七大族群。

債券展望:伺機而動,待債市轉折出現

● 高收益債:信用壓力指標顯示基本面相當健康,隱含未來12個月違約率僅2.0%,尤其看好美國經濟復甦、財政支出等題材,有利於美國高收益債表現。

● 新興債券:今年來利差收斂落後,未來具表現空間;進入減債與升息階段,景氣正向復甦,利差收窄推升,有利於價格表現,新興債後市看好。

【第四季推薦基金清單】

多頭行情未死,多元配置為上策,建議透過下列推薦產品,擴大投資組合中的多元資產的涵蓋率,分散資產配置,防震減波。
1-2021Q4_outlook

資料來源:瀚亞投資,2021/10。

 
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