為何目前宜分散新興市場投資

新興市場的價值股與增長股之間的估值差距已達到極端水準,超越先前於網際網路泡沫和全球金融危機期間的高位。我們認為目前的估值差異創歷史水準,突顯投資者可把握的重大機會,以及現時新興市場投資組合偏重增長股的風險。

隨著新型冠狀病毒(新冠肺炎)疫情爆發,不少評論文章已探討其帶來前所未見的影響—經濟深陷衰退、市場迅速調整,以及政策官員採取史無前例的貨幣和財政應對措施。然而,特殊情況仍不止於此。疫情引發投資者恐慌,令新興市場成長股與價值股之間的分歧擴大,造成估值差距異常的情況。按本益比計,成長股與價值股之間的估值差距現已遠網際網路泡沫和全球金融危機期間的高位。(見圖1)。

圖1:新興市場成長股對比價值股

新興市場成長股對比價值股,成長股相對便宜

資料來源:麥格理量化研究(Macquarie Quantitative Research),2020年6月30日。MSCI新興市場指數首20%優質股(按麥格理質素評分)對比首20%價值股(按麥格理價值評分)的相對本益比,以及首20%成長股(按麥格理增長評分)對比首20%價值股(按麥格理價值評分)的相對本益比。

事實上,目前MSCI新興市場指數內最昂貴的20%股票價格,是指數內最便宜的20%股票價格的三倍,這種估值差異在過去20年前所未見。(見圖2)。

圖2:新興市場內的估值差異

新興市場內的估值差異,估值差異擴大

資料來源:瀚亞投資,2020年6月30日。*新興市場估值最高的首20%股票除以估值最低的20%股票的估值差異(以12個月預期本益比計)。使用範圍包括標準普爾亞太區(日本除外)廣泛新興市場指數及標準普爾韓國廣泛市場指數(美元)。

任何有關成長股與價值股之間的估值差異討論,均難免引起批判,認為現時市帳率等個別估值指標已不合時宜,因為具市場主導地位的科技公司擁有知識產權、品牌和市場定位,但卻未能如實物和有形資產般列在資產負債表內。我們認同有關說法,因此我們不會依賴單一估值方法,而是考慮源自一系列估值指標的絕對和相對訊號,有關指標包括本益比、市帳率和股息率。

付出代價

我們並不認為許多表現領先的成長型公司均質素欠佳。事實上,不少帶動成長股上升的行業或分類行業可能受惠於電子商務、雲端和串流等疫後新常態。我們相信隨著消費行為出現正面的轉變,目前的主要科技趨勢將重塑全球面貌。然而,我們對以下問題存疑:投資者願意為這類股票支付多少溢價;以及溢價是否建基於推斷這些公司的龐大利潤、市場份額和壟斷影響力將在未來持續。

此外,我們並不表示指數內估值最便宜的20%股票最終均會表現亮麗。部份公司因某些原因而估值便宜。透過基本因素分析,我們篩選並淘汰經營不善和業務模式欠佳的公司以及估值陷阱,同時物色價格低於其合理估值的優質企業。最終,我們投資於高度確信其估值折讓是因短暫利空因素所致的公司,這些公司長遠將會帶來可持續盈利。於撰文之時,我們已在南非和墨西哥發掘具吸引力的投資機會,鑑於兩地出現不利的媒體消息,故投資者或會傾向忽略有關市場。

我們亦已廣泛配置於中國,但迴避價格過高的行業。我們的投資理念把握投資者行為偏差的優勢獲利,即投資者往往對利多和利空消息反應過度,使其對前者支付過高價格,並對後者支付過低價格。新冠肺炎疫情加劇上述趨勢發展。

我們相信於市場週期的現階段,以如此極端的估值差異買入價值股,有助提高投資組合在中長期顯著增持價值股並提升價值的可能性。

為何現在宜投資價值股?

過去十年,價值股的表現遜於成長股,甚至最堅守價值股的投資者也面臨決心考驗。既然如此,為何現時需要關注價值股?首先,我們認為目前的估值差異創歷史水準,突顯投資者可把握的重大機會,以及現時新興市場配置偏重增長股的風險。同時,在通膨預期減弱和利率下跌的情況下,價值股展現長達十年的遜色表現。另一方面,低貼現率為許多成長股的估值高企提供理據。目前,各國推出前所未見的財政和貨幣刺激措施,旨在抵銷新冠肺炎影響,因而推動貨幣供應急增。圖3顯示M2貨幣供應佔名義國內生產總值的百分比創歷史高位。M2是一項計算貨幣供應的指標,包括市場流通現金和儲蓄存款。

圖3:M2貨幣供應佔國內生產總值的比率創歷史高位

M2貨幣供應佔國內生產總值的比率急遽升高,創歷史高位

資料來源:美國商務部經濟分析局、聯儲局、國家經濟研究局、穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)。2020年8月。

在一般正常市況下,當超額現金處於高水平,往往會被用作購買金融資產(目前情況確實如此)、貨品及服務。展望未來數月,投資者對疫苗或療法成功面世的樂觀情緒或會令通膨預期升溫。總體經濟前景的陰霾減退和貼現率上升,可能促使投資者在價值股領域發掘趁低吸納的機會。

目前宜分散投資

我們的研究顯示,大部份資產擁有人可能在其現有新興市場配置偏重增長股,因為價值型投資經理目前僅佔全球新興市場投資範疇約10%1。這意味價值型投資經理或可為現時配置於新興市場的長線投資者提供龐大的分散投資優勢。

即使對現有新興市場配置並無偏重成長股的投資者來說,亦可合理假設目前的估值差距處於極端水準,正為其帶來吸引的投資機會。令人感到諷刺的是,價值股投資策略長期以來的回報未如理想,反而為有關投資奠定表現回升的基礎。

過往顯示,轉投價值股的趨勢往往銳不可當,投資者可能需要作好準備。

 

1eVestment Database, 30 March 2020. Eastspring Investments.

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