摘要
跑贏大盤的報酬潛力
高污染行業的公司因其對環境的影響及／或排放相關的潛在財務懲罰而蒙上污名，其估值往往偏低，為能夠識別出致力轉型至更永續慣例的公司的投資者創造錯價機遇。隨著這些公司推行改革以減少碳足跡，同時把握機會，將氣候適應及／或緩解方案轉化為收益，預計其市場估值將會上升，有望為早期投資者帶來吸引報酬。針對這些公司的研究亦可能較少，提供了獲取超額報酬的機會。
- 減低排放：在符合《巴黎協定》目標的情景下，這將降低公司因碳稅或排放交易計劃而支付額外排放相關成本的風險。
- 把握氣候轉型機會：無論符合《巴黎協定》目標與否，面對受氣候變化影響的世界，預計在策略中採用氣候適應或低碳解決方案的公司能夠把握商機。
以我們過往識別出的一間中國油氣鑽探公司為例，部分永續投資者可能將相關行業視為禁忌。雖然該公司的ESG評分低於平均水平（註1），但其在董事會監督下制定了低碳發展行動計劃，並與中國的國家自主貢獻﹙NDC﹚目標保持一致。該公司在轉型努力及提高能源效率方面亦出現重大創新。
著眼實效多於感覺
資料來源：國際可再生能源機構。2024年。《新興市場及發展中經濟體的公平共融能源轉型︰能源規劃、融資、永續燃料及社會層面》。參考資料：（彭博新能源財經，2024a；國際貨幣基金組織，無年份；世界銀行，2024年）。註：GDP=國內生產毛額；EMDEs=新興市場及發展中經濟體；數據基於最新年份的可用數據。年度投資數據為2023年數據，國內生產毛額及人口數據為2022年數據。國家分類以國際貨幣基金組織《世界經濟展望》為依據。 推動公司由「差劣」或「骯髒」轉型至「中等」或「潔淨」水平（實效型投資）較購入已達「潔淨」水平的公司（感覺型投資）產生更大的實質影響。見圖2。由於亞太區及新興市場多個國家的國內生產毛額（GDP）均嚴重依賴高污染行業，突然在相關行業撤資可能引發嚴重的經濟混亂及社會不平等。透過投資及促進相關行業轉型，投資者有助在環境永續發展的需要以及經濟穩定與社會公平之間達致平衡。
圖2：迴避困難無法帶來真正影響
資料來源︰瀚亞投資（新加坡）有限公司。本文所載資料可由投資經理酌情更改，恕不另行通知。任何預估或預測不一定是未來表現或可能取得之表現的指標。「與地球限度保持一致」指將行動與地球支撐人類發展的上限保持一致的過程。2025年1月。報酬最大化：雙贏方案
註1：Sustainalystics 及標普全球的評級。
註2：Sustainalystics 及標普全球的評級。
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