摘要
2026年上半年，美國及亞洲部分地區的經濟成長將受惠於刺激措施及人工智慧相關支出。市場仍預計美國聯準會今年將降息50個基點，但對於降息幅度，尤其是降息時機的信心有所下降。與此同時，亞洲的寬鬆週期已接近尾聲，預計2026年僅有少數國家有限度地降息。由於經濟數據利多，瀚亞多元資產投資組合解決方案團隊在短期內仍普遍看好風險資產。亞洲及新興市場股票似乎處於有利位置，而新興市場債券則提供吸引的持有收益，並有望受惠於投資人對高收益硬貨幣債券的需求。
總體經濟：刺激措施級人工智慧相關支出將支撐經濟成長
美國人工智慧基建支出持續迅速成長，帶動美國經濟在去年下半年顯著成長，超出市場預期。市場普遍預期人工智慧支出在今年至少成長30%，加上2026年上半年《大而美法案》的減稅措施產生的龐大財政刺激效應，以及聯準會降息的滯後影響，預計2026年美國國內生產毛額成長成長將達到2%或略高。美國職位創造步伐放緩是美國正面成長成長前景面臨的主要風險，但持續的經濟成長成長預計將推動美國就業回升。
亞洲方面，受美國人工智慧熱潮影響，晶片出口有望帶動韓國及台灣國內生產毛額分別成長2.0%及3.4%。人工智慧主題也對馬來西亞出口及建築業帶來利多效果，受惠於數據中心建設活動，後者增幅達雙位數，預計該國的國內生產毛額成長成長4.5%。
相較美國，由於消費及投資動力轉弱，中國國內生產毛額成長成長由2025年上半年的超過5%放緩至第四季的4.5%。然而，我們預測，在政府刺激措施推動下，2026年國內生產毛額將成長成長4.8%。首輪刺激措施已於1月15日推出︰中國人民銀行（人行）上調再貸款額度，並下調定向貸款利率。預計人行將在第二季下調政策利率及存款準備率，以進一步放寬貨幣政策。最重要的是，預計政府將在3月公佈新的財政刺激措施，主要針對基建支出及關鍵「新經濟」行業的投資。
日本經濟方面，企業資本支出成長指標在去年底上升，並預計出口將在本季反彈。若首相高市早苗在即將舉行的日本國會提前選舉中取得更多席位，料將能夠擴大財政刺激政策規模。與中國類似，刺激措施或將著重戰略性行業及軍事支出。我們預計今年日本實際國內生產毛額成長將接近1.0%。
資產配置：看好股票表現，但正從高估值的美股分散投資至其他資產
2025年，市場走勢出乎預期，在波動環境中攀升至歷史新高。就短期戰術性投資期（即3個月）而言，我們繼續大致看好風險資產，因目前經濟數據仍然利好，而倘若2026年美國國內生產毛額成長如預期般放緩，聯準會的預期降息將有助抵銷部分影響。
值得注意的是，2025年非美國股票的表現領先美國股票。亞洲及新興市場在2026年似乎處於有利位置，並受惠於財政及貨幣刺激措施以及偏好美元貶值的政策方向。就戰術性投資期而言，我們繼續看好股票，但傾向增持估值偏低的股市，以從估值偏高的美股分散投資至其他資產。
美國信用利差似乎狹窄，但按殖利率計算，其估值似乎更為吸引。我們認為，鑑於美國固定收益的綜合殖利率吸引，投資人將繼續增持美國固定收益，惟增持步伐將較近年放緩。2025年，全球固定收益中，新興市場主權債券表現最佳。我們認為，新興市場債券提供吸引的持有收益，並將持續受惠於全球利率形勢、美元貶值以及投資人對高收益硬貨幣資產的強勁需求。
本文是2026年第一季市場展望的摘要。點擊此處下載完整報告，包括題為《把握亞洲債券的收益與分散投資優勢》的專題文章。
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