在未知中引領向前

儘管沙烏地阿拉伯和俄羅斯間的油價戰可能會在短期內對市場形成壓力,長期來看,市場在過去多能平穩地度過低油價的時期。我們樂觀以待全球因應冠狀病毒疫情採行的貨幣和財政刺激政策,這些措施將會促進經濟的成長。

上週我們見證了標普500史上最快速的修正:隨著冠狀病毒擴散到亞洲以外的地區,且病例數不斷增加,美股在短短六天內,各大指數下跌幅度皆達到10%。近期沙烏地阿拉伯與俄羅斯的油價戰使得油價崩跌至每桶近30美元,更加劇市場的擔憂。市場擔心油價崩跌將觸發一波違約潮,使股指及公債殖利率同步下挫。

新冠病毒疫情蔓延影響深遠,隨著疫情發展不明確,造成未來幾個月投資人必須克服市場上種種的變數。消費者信心指數下滑、預期商業行為受到破壞,將影響經濟活動疲軟。國際金融協會已調低美國與中國的2020年GDP預期,分別降至1.3%與4.0%。許多專家對於經濟成長的預估也大致反映了疫情將可能對全球經濟造成長遠的衝擊。

然而,我們仍能在危機中看見緩和的端倪。

緩和的跡象

值得注意的是,中國確診病例穩定下降,中國及亞洲股市開始回穩(圖一)。可以推測未來已開發國家市場走勢可能會與中國股市相似,然而實際上還是取決於其政府是否能執行有效的防疫措施。如果政府的防疫措施’力度不夠大,恐提高歐美地區經濟衰退機率。歐洲尤其危險,因為歐洲的銀行體系較為脆弱,且財政支出與防疫措施的實施須花較長的時間才能落實。

 

圖一:亞洲相對全球市場市場表現1

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疫情若擴散的更廣更久,將驅使政府執行更積極的因應措施。疫情最先開始的中國提供國際一套範本:自從疫情爆發,中國政府就開始增加公債發行、降低政策利率、提供便宜的貸款與補貼給受影響的公司。這些先行的貨幣寬鬆政策將為未來幾季擴張性財政政策鋪路,有了這些措施,應可穩定市場、提振經濟成長(圖二)。

圖二:中國的貨幣與財政刺激領先全球2

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放眼亞洲,馬來西亞、菲律賓、印尼、香港與泰國央行皆已降息。這些國家及新加坡、韓國、日本皆宣布財政刺激政策。在已開發市場,儘管聯準會三月降息兩碼,但對歐洲與日本來說,因貨幣寬鬆仍有其侷限,財政政策將為其主要的紓困手段,面對疫情造成的供應鏈危機,短期的財政刺激如補助低收入戶、替小公司減稅與提供貸款補貼可能比降息更有效。

我們對全球貨幣與財政政策刺激經濟成長有信心(圖三),如果已開發市場的疫情擴散能受到良好控制,其經濟將更快速且有力回彈。在歷史上,債券殖利率下降與較低的能源價格通常都有益於經濟活動與市場。

圖三:全球製造業採購經理人指數與貨幣政策3

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在美國的部分,隨著油價的崩跌,美國高收益債券利差擴大,雖然這可能導致普遍的信用緊縮,但若我們仔細觀察,利差擴大的產業主要是能源業。除此之外,美國總統川普很可能會為了確保美國的能源獨立,且在大選年保持美國經濟穩定,而宣布對受影響產業進行貸款與紓困計畫。

如何在危機中投資?

 

我們減碼股票來降低多重資產基金的風險,同時加碼歐洲固定收益存續期間的曝險部位。衡量股市預期波動的VIX指數飆升超越40,代表股市處於短期谷底,提供買進風險性資產的絕佳機會。然而,我們認為猜測最佳進場時機是極為莽撞的嘗試。因此,我們認為在超賣的市場氛圍中應該專注在管理投組風險,且適時在市場回穩時重新建立股票的部位。

無法預見油價戰的發展不利於短期市場情緒,冠狀病毒在中國以外的地區擴散也使原油需求與油價承壓。然而市場過去總能安然度過低油價的時期,如2015年油價曾跌至每桶30美元,引起市場對經濟成長的恐慌。我們的固定收益團隊認為,相較於美國高收益債券市場,以美元計價的亞洲高收益債券包含較少的原油企業。我們高收益債券投資組合中的企業,多屬政府控制或持有、藍籌股的子公司,以及沒有立即融資需求的企業。我們認為這些企業將可平穩度過油價低迷的時期。

近期的市場修正已使得股價更顯合理,投資人若希望能從低股價中獲利,卻又擔憂市場波動,希望能採取較保守的立場,則低波動策略應為理想的選擇。最近幾天市場情緒的急劇波動,考驗我們的價值股票團隊是否能有紀律地專注於股票的評價。藉由專注於股票評價,我們能排除投資過程中的情緒性因素,幫助我們辨別並掌握錯誤定價的機會。

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