摘要
MSCI中國指數較一年前上升29.6%，年初至今上升17.8% 。考慮到中美正進行冗長而波折的關稅談判，加上中國的經濟前景依然充滿挑戰，上述表現可能出乎部分投資人的意料之外。見圖1。事實上，中國股市的漲幅已令全球投資人雀躍萬分。國際金融協會報告指出，5月流入中國的非本地居民股票資金轉為溫和正值，達14億美元。
圖1：儘管受關稅問題困擾，但MSCI 中國指數走勢上升
資料來源：彭博。多個新聞資訊來源。瀚亞投資。2024年8月至2025年6月12日。
重新調整風險敞口
近期美元兌主要已發展國家貨幣有貶值的趨勢，加上預計美國經濟增長將會放緩，促使投資人重新調整風險暴露，轉向政策較穩定且估值相對吸引的市場。
我們在2025年年中展望報告中指出，預計2025年美國經濟增長將放緩至1.2%至1.5%（2024年為2.8%），並存在下行風險。同時，我們預計今年中國經濟增長將接近4.4%（2024年為5%）。中國政府已宣佈相當於接近國內生產毛額2%的財政支持措施，以確保實現其經濟增長目標。事實上，中國人民銀行亦已開始降息，並增加對多個經濟行業的專項貸款。
儘管中美兩國的國內生產毛額增長前景差距擴大，但MSCI中國指數較MSCI美國指數仍有大幅折讓，高於五年的歷史平均值。見圖2。
圖2：中國與美國：本益比折讓與國內生產毛額增長差距的比較
資料來源：MacroMind。2025年6月。
同時，目前全球主動型基金對中國股票市場的配置偏低，意味仍有增持中國股票的空間。全球主動型基金所持有的中國股票仍然偏低平均較基準低3.3%。若中國股市持續表現造好，持倉偏低估計會拖累基金相對表現。見圖3。
圖3：全球主動型基金對中國股票的配置情況（偏高比重/偏低比重）
資料來源：MSCI、EPFR、高盛全球投資研究部。包括全球新興市場、亞洲（日本除外）、全球及全球（美國除外）基金。管理資產規模1.1萬億美元。
個別行業表現強勁
中國股票市場方面，儘管美國關稅稅率的不確定性、中國通縮環境長時間持續及其房地產行業面臨多重挑戰，但個別投資主題仍表現強勁。過去一年，在技術進步的推動下，與人工智能相關的基建及與智能製造（如機器人、新能源汽車）有關的個別股票表現跑贏大盤。此外，多間製藥公司在6月舉行的美國臨床腫瘤學會（ASCO）年會上披露了亮眼的臨床數據，其國際認受性及全球市場潛力有所提升，亦因而提振創新藥物行業的投資情緒。同時，抓緊中國Z世代最愛的產品及服務的新消費趨勢，帶動相關股票上漲。此外，自2024年9月近期低位以來，人民幣兌美元升值3%，進一步帶動MSCI中國指數中個別股票的盈利表現。
我們繼續採取槓鈴投資策略以應對市場波動。因此，我們看好以下的防禦性股票：
- 估值合理、基本因素穩健且配息具吸引力的公司。
- 擅於提供財富管理服務的公司：我們看好那些清楚知道如何透過滿足市場需求來獲得市場份額，且能為股東帶來穩定報酬的公司。
- 在中國及海外市場均處於領先地位，並且受關稅影響較少的必需消費品公司。
我們亦看好能夠把握市場增長機會的複利增長型股票。包括：
- 所提供的服務及產品能夠吸引中國及海外Z世代的消費公司。
- 能夠從產品及服務創新中獲得顯著效益，並擁有多元化環球製造網絡或強大定價能力的行業龍頭。
再次受到關注的原因
過去一年中國股市的表現為投資人帶來了振奮人心的機遇，顯示即使面對持續的關稅談判及廣泛的經濟挑戰，報酬豐厚的前景仍然存在。
投資人若希望取得可觀報酬可進行策略性選股，選擇受惠於新興行業趨勢、公司基本因素強勁及盈利增長前景良好的股票。過去十年，MSCI 中國指數中表現最佳與次佳的投資風格之間年度表現差距平均為8個百分點。這種看準市場差異的策略允許投資人採取靈活、與投資風格無關的策略，把握市場中最具潛力的投資機會。
過去，MSCI 中國指數曾有過亮眼的增長期，顯示採取主動、靈活的策略是駕馭中國股票市場的關鍵。隨著近年受到忽視的中國股市重獲投資人的關注，中國股票市場目前展現出更高的超額報酬潛力及顯著上升空間。中國股票市場不斷克服重重挑戰，足以重新吸引投資人的興趣，因此現在正是密切注視這個充滿活力的市場的大好良機。
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