摘要
在接二連三的壞消息後，中國的政策制定者需要更果斷地採取行動，以穩定消費者及投資人的信心。我們認為，本季政府將推動更多房地產刺激政策，有助於支撐今年第四季的經濟情況。
中國經濟動能在 7 月依然疲弱。投資、生產及消費微幅下滑，房地產行業仍處於下行週期。致命洪災衝擊華北地區的投資與生產活動，實際造成的影響難以估計。同時，最新的通膨數據顯示中國已陷入通縮。近日，房地產開發商碧桂園、金融集團中植系拖欠款項，加劇投資者的憂慮。
瀚亞上海研究主管 Jingjing Weng 認為，持續低迷的房地產市場代表更多信託公司存在違約風險。投資人趨於保守的風險偏好也將損害這些公司的流動性。不過，為了遏制影子銀行與規避金融風險，2018 年中國監管機構發布新的資產管理規定，信託業對房地產業的持股比例也隨之下降至 5% 左右。正面來看，政策當局可能會因近期事件而加強政策釋出力道，畢竟防範系統性風險是當局的首要目標之一。
之前政府不願意更積極釋出政策刺激經濟，但政策基調似乎有轉變的跡象。在 7 月政治局會議結束後，政策制定者表示將考慮調整及優化房地產政策，房地產業備受激勵。此後，中國央行在8月將中期借貸便利利率（MLF）下調 15 個基點，並將 7 天期公開市場操作利率下調 10 個基點。截至本文撰寫日，有消息指出部分二線城市正計劃放寬頭期款比例的規定 。由於最近不斷傳出的壞消息，加上青年失業率居高不下，政策制定者愈發需要果斷地採取行動，以穩定消費者及投資人的信心。
瀚亞固定收益團隊中負責信貸研究的 Clement Chong 表示，穩定的房地產業是維持投資人情緒與購屋者信心的關鍵。如果購屋者信心持續萎縮，銷售收入、營運現金流相應減少及銀行避險情緒升溫，將進一步導致房地產業的流動性惡化。銀行業房貸相關的逾期放款比率預計在 2023 及 2024 年上升，但 Clement 仍認為大型國有銀行的財務實力足夠抵禦房地產業的低迷時期，它們的系統重要性也能在必要時刻獲得政府的援助。
Jingjing 認為，7 月的經濟數據對中國第三季 GDP 造成壓力。她預期這一季內將會釋出更多房地產刺激政策，有助於支撐第四季的經濟。因此，2023 年中國應該仍能實現全年 GDP 成長 5% 的目標。隨著庫存耗盡，及通膨下行趨勢觸底，Jingjing 指出，製造業補庫存週期將有助帶動下半年的獲利。中國 7 月的生產者物價指數（PPI）跌幅收窄，未來幾個月的基數效應（Base Effect）似乎是利多；與此同時，中國核心消費者物價指數（Core CPI）7 月的表現相對強勁。Jingjing 推估，中國 8 月的 CPI 及明年初的 PPI 將止跌回升。
中國 A 股市場目前估值接近今年低位。受到投資人的悲觀情緒影響，市場對任何利多消息都極為敏感。展望未來，中國經濟影響力上升導致的地緣政治緊張局勢，以及政府想重新平衡經濟的願望，都將繼續造成總體經濟與市場呈現震盪格局。投資人需要在短期內增加靈活性，並長期關注在供應鏈、能源、科技及資訊領域中，有助中國政府實現「核心 」的戰略性產業。除了精密製造業，瀚亞中國 A 股團隊也繼續看好新能源、消費、醫療服務、科技及網絡安全等新經濟產業。
更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).