促進中國飲食業發展的三大趨勢

隨著中國在未來十年推行「雙循環」成長策略,在地消費將成為最重要的支柱,並提供飲食業方面的投資機會。新趨勢竄起及消費者喜好出現變化,將利多注重健康、便利和創新的品牌。

中國飲食市場正迅速成長,預計2021年收入為1,760億美元,佔全球飲食業收入的63%。展望未來,預計2021年至2025年全年收入增長率為8.38%1

我們認為上述三大範疇正推動飲食業的變化和增長。積極樹立高端形象及推出獨特高端產品的飲食品牌別具競爭優勢。

消費持續升級

中國消費升級並不是一股新趨勢,一線城市消費者購買高端奢侈產品和服務,而二線城市消費者則選擇更多品牌產品。雖然新冠肺炎疫情某程度上遏抑消費,但這股趨勢依然存在,而且逐漸普及。飲食業正經歷類似的情況。富裕和見多識廣的中國消費者已開始優先考慮改善健康狀況,追求更佳的生活素質,因此符合健康生活方式的產品需求不斷增加。

目前,飲品業普遍出現這個情況。包裝飲用水是中國最大的非酒精飲品市場範疇。儘管純淨水所佔比重偏高,但因民眾的健康意識增強,天然水和天然礦泉水近年的成長步伐最迅速。同樣地,近年來低糖或無糖茶飲、排毒果汁及營養飲品的需求都有所上升。

食品業方面,一項調查顯示,一、二線城市的86%消費者在購買食物前會先考慮食品安全2。蔬菜、雞蛋、肉類和水果等新鮮食品被視為天然和不含化學物質,因此是需求殷切的食品類別之一。同時,沙拉等天然健康的包裝食品亦展現成長。

儘管健康和安全因素在消費者選擇飲食時擔當重要角色,但他們亦著重購買高端品牌產品所帶來的滿足感。酒精飲品方面,消費者目前更重視體驗和享受,因此願意為滿足這個需要的產品花費更多。預料高端白酒將於2021年及其後顯著增長,而高端化是中國啤酒生產商實現利潤成長的主要動力。圖1顯示高端啤酒銷售量料可展現上升趨勢。

圖1:啤酒分類市場(按銷售量計算)啤酒分類市場

重視「真實、天然、健康和素質」,並提供全面和優質產品的企業享有最佳優勢,可迎合中國消費者對飲食業的高端化需求。

網上食品雜貨商竄起3

正如消費升級趨勢一樣,網上購物由來已久。更確切的是,疫情引發各國實行封鎖措施,促使消費者加快轉向網上購物。目前,電子商務已成為中國消費者購物行為的重要一環,截至2020年底滲透率達30%。

然而,電子雜貨(新鮮產品和快速消費品)表現落後,滲透率只有10%,很可能源於新鮮食品的保鮮期短,因此物流需求較大,而且便利店等線下渠道可按需要即時提供產品,以滿足顧客要求。不過,消費者自疫情以來已養成上網習慣,加上基建和配送渠道改善,以及品牌轉向網上經營模式,預料將於2025年帶動電子雜貨滲透率升至33%(見圖2)。

圖2:電子雜貨市場預測

電子雜貨市場預測

目前,便利程度和素質正推動精通數位科技的年輕消費者在網上購買雜貨。除了一、二線城市外,三至五線城市的消費者亦開始適應這個變化,預料在2019年至2025年期間,隨著電子雜貨市場規模擴大,這些消費者將帶來超過一半貢獻。 

創新產品展現需求

隨著新產品、新包裝、新渠道以至新的市場推廣方法出現,創新對飲食業的重要性日益提高,務求藉此吸引消費者。飲品業方面,企業不斷推陳出新,以迎合年輕消費群。

同樣地,中國本地調味品公司也一直推出各種特製和實用的產品,進而滿足消費者不同的烹調需要。舉例來說,市面有特製的煲仔飯、海南雞和蒸魚醬油。這些產品的零售價可能較一般產品高出一倍以上(見圖3)。

圖3:調味品行業銷售額調味品行業銷售額

創新包裝亦可推動銷售成長;一家中國領先飲品製造商推出包裝別具創意的飲用水產品,刺激銷售量大幅增加。科技也在創新方面擔當重要角色。串流直播在中國日益普及,有助許多企業推出新產品,而透過社交媒體分享食品和體驗亦廣受年輕消費者歡迎。

此外,網路直播和直接面對顧客的網上銷售渠道已成為接觸消費者的常用和有效方法,企業可藉此建立品牌形象,並進行市場推廣和銷售,尤其是適用於新興品牌。有關消費者喜好和行為的網上數據資源豐富,可讓企業深入了解如何加以運用。

成長空間龐大

根據世界銀行2019年的數據顯示,中國最終消費佔國內生產總值的56%,與美國的81.8%相比屬偏低水平。摩根士丹利近期發表一份報告,指出中國消費開支將於十年內增加一倍以上,主要集中於服務而非貨品。到了2030年,中國私人消費可望達致12.7萬億美元,與目前美國消費者開支大致相同4

至於飲食業,我們認為高端酒精飲品、優格和鮮奶、創新的複合調味品、包裝飲品及保健品的成長率將高於平均。然而,我們認為優質品牌、提供健康選擇和利用創新渠道進行市場推廣的公司、電子商務平台,以及促進電子雜貨趨勢的企業均展現投資機遇。

這是瀚亞投資2021年亞洲專家系列六篇文章的第五篇。在這個聚焦中國的新系列中,我們的投資團隊探討和分析中國推行「十四五規劃」所面對的機遇和挑戰。

Sources:
1 https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ecommerce/food-personal-care/food-beverages/china
2 https://www.kantar.com/en-cn/inspiration/fmcg/food-and-beverage-china-2021
3 All data references in this section come from the Credit Suisse report on China e-commerce and Consumer Sectors, Dec 2020.
4 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/chinese-consumer-spending-to-double-by-2030-morgan-stanley-predicts.html
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.