把握價值股的復甦機遇

價值股在2020年普遍被市場忽略,投資者聚焦於短期成長股和優質股。然而,我們相信趨勢正在轉變。隨著新冠肺炎疫苗面世、美國新總統上任,以及多國推行前所未見的財政和貨幣措施來支持全球經濟,價值股的復甦動力蓄勢待發。

全球金融危機爆發後的十年間,投資者不再採用價值投資法,因為他們不願作出持有投資一定年期的決定。過去12個月,MSCI亞洲(日本除外)價值指數落後MSCI亞洲(日本除外)成長指數超過38%(截至10月底),使這兩種投資風格的相對估值差距達到極高。我們認為目前這種獨特的罕見情況(3++標準差)源於投資者的行為偏差。

股市投資者聚焦於短期成長股和優質股,因此皆採取順勢投資策略,在過去十年,上升的股票一直維持升勢。此外,在近期新冠肺炎疫情憂慮引發的經濟放緩下,投資者加倍買入非常昂貴的成長股和優質股。然而,我們認為價值股的復甦動力蓄勢待發。謹守紀律的價值型投資經理有卓越能力捕捉股市大幅調整,投資者可增加對相關經理的投資,以把握這個市場機遇。

價值股在過去20年有95%時間表現領先

回顧過去20年,價值投資法在亞洲(日本除外)股市的往績亮麗。MSCI亞洲(日本除外)價值指數在期內有95%時間表現領先MSCI亞洲(日本除外)增長指數。(見圖1)。這種相對領先的表現充份證明投資價值股是可取的亞洲(日本除外)長期投資策略,但這個長期表現並未反映整體走勢。

圖1:亞洲(不含日本)價值股與成長股的相對表現亞洲(日本除外)價值股與成長股的相對表現

如果我們將該段期間分成兩個十年,從2000年至全球金融危機爆發期間,價值股的表現遙遙領先。這是由於1990年代後期的科技股價值被嚴重高估(陷入科技泡沫),當時投資者對科技股的未來潛力盲目樂觀,以至忽視市場內許多其他範疇。隨著泡沫爆破,科技股估值在其後十年逐步回落,價值投資者的表現大幅領先,因為市場過去的情緒化和行為偏差減退,加上估值過高的成長股無法實現市場憧憬的樂觀未來盈利,因此表現受壓。

當市場走出全球金融危機陰霾後,便進入下一個十年期間,價值股的亮麗走勢出現暗湧,形勢開始逆轉。該次危機導致市場急跌,所有投資者均受到拖累。民眾失去工作、生計、退休金和儲蓄,事件帶來的痛苦、傷害和情緒包袱在未來十年的大部份時間一直揮之不去。期內投資者不再願意進行長期投資,而是繼續投資於亞洲股票,期望持有聞名遐邇、備受青睞、獲市場廣泛研究的優質穩定公司,讓他們可安枕無憂。同時,主題增長機會湧現,對尋求增長潛力的投資者來說極具吸引力。在利率徘徊在零附近的水準下,全球銀行業可說是提供「免息資金」,投資者不大介意為相關投資支付甚麼價格。因此,成長股、優質股及動力股於期內均表現出色,而價值股則落後市場。隨著優質股和成長股變得非常昂貴,而價值股則維持便宜和備受忽視,兩者的相對估值在這段期間開始進入前所未見的水準。(見圖2)。

圖2:亞洲(不含日本)成長股相對價值股的估值處於最昂貴水準亞洲(日本除外)成長股相對價值股的估值處於最昂貴水準

直至2020年初,全球經濟以及亞洲多個市場開始出現復甦跡象,投資者亦對價值股產生興趣,但突如其來的新冠肺炎疫情改變了一切。在疫情爆發和股市急跌過後,投資者立即重投他們認為安全和感到安心的成長股,促使這類股票節節高升,廉價股與昂貴股的相對估值接近四個標準差。(見圖3)。鑑於全球地緣政治環境不明朗、第二波和第三波疫情以及對經濟前景的憂慮,投資者無意改變一直行之有效的成長股和優質股投資策略,直到最近才出現轉變。

圖3:亞太區(不含日本)估值差異亞太區(不含日本)估值差異

趨勢正在轉變

在新興市場股票的估值出現極大差異的環境下,未來十年投資者面對著截然不同的前景。

近期流入全球價值股的交易量飆升,帶動相關股票的短期表現出色。儘管我們希望能肯定地指出具體數據或證據,以確認估值差異將轉趨正常和價值股從此表現領先,但現實是過往經驗已多次證實,嘗試捕捉風格轉變時機總是徒勞無功。然而,我們認為全球宏觀經濟和政治環境出現數項重大變化,創造了非常有利的條件,將促進投資氣氛轉變和正常化過程持續。

首先是新冠肺炎疫苗成功開始接種。在有效疫苗的消息公佈之前,投資者的配置反映導致股票錯價的最大情緒影響因素是憂慮。但現時投資者開始相信前景出現曙光,促使他們將焦點轉移至所持資產的估值,不僅關注其增長前景,而且會制定較理性的投資年期,因此為價值股帶來支持。

其次,全球政治環境動盪不安,2020年美國大選充滿變數,因此全球投資者一直按兵不動。但隨著美國新總統即將上任,加上參眾兩院出現分治局面,未來時間相比過去五年的政治動盪可能較為緩和,外交政策重回正軌,而且意料之外的媒體消息將會減少。民主黨推行全面財政改革的可能性較低,國際關係亦可望得到紓緩。地緣政治變化和政策波動性減少,亦將利多亞洲價值股。

最後,我們不應忘記,全球已一致推行近代規模最大的財政和貨幣支持措施。鑑於全球低息環境推動市場資金飆升,意味美元前景轉弱,加上通膨展望相對溫和,目前宏觀經濟環境看來對亞洲股票非常有利,尤其是價值股。

把握復甦機遇

我們認為,把握這個投資機遇的最佳方式是採取單純的價值策略配置。25年前,瀚亞投資已於亞洲制定價值投資理念,亦持續觀察到人類情緒和行為偏差對投資決定的扭曲,導致投資者對增長承諾的看法付出過高代價,並僅以近期成績來推斷不久將來的表現。這情況造成錯誤定價,我們正致力把握這些機會。

我們奉行嚴謹的價值策略,其有賴經驗豐富的投資者團隊從亞洲最便宜的一籃子股票中挑選最佳投資機會,繼而進行討論。這個策略的設計意味我們將討論和投資於別人忽視的股票、投資者憂慮短期阻力而產生估值訊號的公司,以及其他投資者不欲作中期投資的公司。

儘管我們承認近期經驗不利策略表現,但從長遠來看,我們認為不惜代價買入成長股和優質股是不智之舉。隨著投資者為這些熱門股票所支付的估值變得扭曲,尋找「愚者」以更高價格買入這類股票的做法會突然變得不切實際。這可能導致股價突然急跌和資本永久虧損,所有投資者都需要極力避免。

投資者開始關注具備中期盈利增長潛力的股票,並意識到其便宜程度可支持我們的價值主張。我們認為目前是投資價值股的千載難逢機會。

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