中國V型反彈的三個亮點

中國經濟穩健，對全球增長帶來重要貢獻，而且人民幣吸引力不斷提升，均成為投資組合持有中國資產的依據。十四五規劃將揭示中國政府在未來數年的重點項目，以及其為投資者帶來哪些潛在機遇。

中國經濟增長率由2020年第二季的3.2%升至第三季的4.9%。儘管增幅低於普遍預測，但中國或是唯一實現罕見「V」型反彈的大型經濟體，見圖1。

圖1：中國實質及名義國內生產總值增長（按年%）

 

3-takeaways-from-china-s-v-1

資料來源：中國國家統計局及花旗投資研究

工業產量、固定資產投資及出口自本年首季觸底後反彈，一直維持增長。值得注意的是，9月份出口訂單取得自2011年1月以來的最大增幅（50.8）。儘管如此，經濟復甦擴大至國內消費層面，或許是最令人鼓舞的跡象。零售銷售結束連續五個月的收縮，繼8月份按年擴張0.5%後，9月份升勢擴大至3.3%。零售銷售數據於近期的黃金週假期（10月1日至8日）表現穩健，顯示若消費者信心增強，國內消費或可持續復甦。在黃金週假期期間，每日平均銷售按年增長4.9%，高於8月份取得的按年0.5%近期高位。中國服務業復甦將是經濟至今復甦範圍能否擴大的關鍵。然而，中國國內生產總值料有望在2020年實現約2至3%的增長。

我們認為，投資者應關注以下三個亮點：

中國經濟穩健

儘管面對國內外的挑戰，但中國在2020年取得經濟增長，反映其經濟穩健並具有潛力，而這應不是僅此一次的表現。根據國際貨幣基金組織估計，中國料將於2025年為全球增長帶來最大貢獻。見圖2。這一趨勢突顯投資者需要在投資組合中部署中國資產。 

圖2：在2025年對環球國內生產總值增長貢獻最大的15個經濟體

 

3-takeaways-from-china-s-v-2

資料來源：彭博通訊社就國際貨幣基金組織數據的分析。個別經濟體的增長預測，為2024至2025年佔全球國內生產總值增長的份額；按購買力平價計算。

人民幣吸引力不斷提升

自5月1至今，人民幣兌美元已升值超過7%。瀚亞投資（新加坡）固定收益投資組合經理吳榮仁表示，儘管人民幣在臨近美國總統大選之際或更趨波動，但中國抗疫出色，而且至今經濟持續反彈，加上在岸債券孳息具吸引力以及國際收支平衡狀況理想，均有利人民幣兌美元的中期表現。鑑於全球央行均持有大量美元資產，加上人民幣質素提高，我們不能排除全球外匯儲備進行多元化部署的可能性。瀚亞投資（中國）固定收益主管William Xin認為，中國政府債券的孳息具有吸引力，若任何國家進行儲備多元化，中國債券將成為主要獲益資產之一。見圖3。

圖3：政府債券名義與實質孳息對比

 

3-takeaways-from-china-s-v-3

資料來源：截至2020年9月24日數據。彭博通訊社。（單位：%）

中國數位生態系統的機遇


中國經濟迅速復甦，帶動國內A股市場於年初至今上揚21%（以美元計）2，表現領先MSCI亞洲（日本除外）指數以及標準普爾500指數。12個月預期市盈率方面，中國A股股市較其他亞洲區內及全球股市更加吸引，儘管目前估值高於歷史平均水準。見圖4。鑑於政策進一步微調的空間似乎有限，經濟和企業盈利出現較預期強勁的復甦，將是推升股市的關鍵動力。 

圖4：與大多數股市相比，中國A股12個月預期市盈率仍然較便宜

 

3-takeaways-from-china-s-v-4

資料來源：Worldscope、MSCI、Factset。2020年10月16日。（單位：%） 

繼中國A股揚升後，投資者往後對主題及行業的投資需要更仔細分析和挑選。中國的十四五規劃揭示政府在未來數年進行的重點項目。在新冠肺炎疫情期間，數位經濟對保障民眾福祉至關重要。瀚亞投資（中國）股票投資總監齊晧預料，中國政府將會推出更多政策以促進數位經濟發展。網上平台已改變消費行為，在娛樂、健康、教育、保險及電子商務等行業創造投資機遇。不過，投資者需放眼於明顯受惠的領域之外，在各個生態系統中尋找可帶來超額回報的投資機會。因此，以宏觀經濟主題配合深入的「由下而上」分析，將是把握最佳投資機遇的關鍵。

 

1Bloomberg. As of 19 October 2020.
2CSI 300 Index as of 20 October 2020.

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.