【2022投資展望】被低估的亞洲 2022年機會滿盈

在中國展開新一輪成長模式之際,亞洲其他國家也將以不同的速度自疫情中復甦,全球需求的回穩也有助於減輕亞洲的經濟負擔。許多經濟體被迫迅速適應和創新,將成為推動亞洲邁入下一個擴張階段的重要成長動能。

亞洲地區在2022年和2023年預計迎來全球最快速的經濟成長。與此同時,亞洲地區的通膨依舊溫和,讓多數亞洲央行可以持續以寬鬆的政策支持剛起步的經濟復甦。在此經濟前景下,我們強調將推動新的投資,並且重塑成長動力的三個領域。

向數位經濟轉型

毫無疑問地,疫情凸顯了網路經濟的重要性,加快電子商務、銀行、教育、醫療保健、物流和資料中心等數位化發展。此外,數位化也提高了印度等新興國家的生產力,印度過去五年的網路使用者已經新增超過4億人。

為了提高數位經濟在GDP中的比重,亞洲國家紛紛公佈嶄新的經濟成長藍圖:

印尼:宣布《數位印尼路線圖》(2021-2024)。

泰國:實施工業4.0轉型,將經濟成長動能從重工業轉向創新領域,並以稅收優惠推動對區塊鏈技術、雲端計算及資訊科技安全的投資。

馬來西亞:為2025年前的數位投資編列700億馬幣預算。

新加坡:分配更多資源用於通訊技術。

日本:優先考慮數位投資,2021年9月由政府主導啟動Digital Agency,期待以此加快公共部門的科技應用。

伴隨數位轉型,就業環境也正在發生變化。由於疫情讓許多人失業,打零工的趨勢增加,新的數位平台也紛紛湧現搶占零工商機。這些數位平台幫助中小企業按照需求管理員工數量,除了能協助企業壓低人力成本,也同時可以快速媒合零工者提供工作機會。更甚至,馬來西亞已將零工經濟認定為未來潛在的成長亮點,並將其納入第12個馬來西亞計劃(2021-2025)。

儘管如此,數位化的加速卻也擴大了數位鴻溝。弱勢群體很可能因為沒有網路和智慧型裝置,無法獲得優質教育、醫療服務、就業及其他社會福利的機會。因此,確保數位經濟以包容及平等的方式發展將成為挑戰。

數位產業對亞洲GDP的影響將大幅提升
1-underappreciated-asia

資料來源:Statista,2021年11月。*排除中國和日本

製造業升級

製造業主導的出口活動,將持續帶動亞洲的經濟復甦。製造商應將直接投資分散風險,建立靈活應變的供應鏈,是人們從疫情汲取到的重要教訓之一。現階段的亞洲製造商在數位科技的輔助下提高產能,並尋求利用外國直接投資(FDI)撤離中國的機會。

有利的政策環境、結構性的改革以及全球企業一致希望供應商基礎多元化的趨勢,已幫助印度許多產業恢復出口並提高產能效率。在越南,由出口產品驅動的電子業也正是供應鏈多元化的最大受益者。

為了推動新的投資,東協提出精簡負面投資清單、增加經商便利性、實施減稅、為經濟特區和工業園區提供財政激勵及增加基建支出等政策。印尼訂定了《創造就業綜合法》讓勞動市場更靈活,希望打造更好的商業環境以吸引外國直接投資;泰國則提出將東部經濟走廊作為工業重地,吸引對智慧電子及機器人投資,讓泰國與經貿夥伴的關係更緊密,促使全球貿易和供應鏈的更進一步融合。

轉向永續投資

此外,疫情也迫使亞洲各國政府關注環境保護、社會責任及公司治理(ESG)議題,刺激潔淨能源和電動車等新興產業的發展。例如,印尼一直嘗試利用豐富的金屬儲備發展電動車和電池產業,使印尼將來有機會成為全球電池產業的重要夥伴國。馬來西亞方面,曾因疫情而停滯的永續能源產業正在復甦,馬來西亞政府已經啟動價值40億馬幣的1瓦特(GW)太陽能招標,馬來西亞的大型融資機構亦正從燃煤等高汙染產業撤資以落實ESG原則。

最近推出的FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Shariah Index以伊斯蘭教法為核心落實ESG原則,除了能滿足社會的永續發展需求,也符合了伊斯蘭教法的投資需求。

新加坡方面為了有效應對氣候變遷,將資源投注於海岸及洪水防護基金;韓國公布氫能經濟振興路線圖,目前已促使企業宣佈在2030年之前推出超過43兆韓元的投資計劃。此外,日本政府也日益關注國內的減碳,多家日本企業已開始制定具體的減碳目標,希望透過產業的綠色轉型提高日本企業的全球競爭力。

投資影響

儘管亞洲國家的前景仍喜憂參半,但在企業方面有積極跡象,超過三分之二的亞洲企業在2021年第三季度意外有正面盈利,且隨著亞洲各國的復甦,未來盈利可望再上調。此外,基於上述成長動能,多個產業有望成為企業和公共部門投資增加的受益者。

目前我們認為以下產業的獲利將提高,進而獲得穩健股息:

銀行業將受益於上述領域對新投資貸款的龐大需求。新冠肺炎疫情期間,在貸款成長但存款成本仍然很低的趨勢下,擁有足夠準備金和充足資本的銀行處於更有利的地位。經濟確定性較高的區域(健康的GDP成長率、房價較高、強大的勞動市場較等)內經營的銀行應能夠透過特別股息或回購來降低資本比率。

科技投資方面,我們認為未來將保持強勁成長動能,且更集中於金融科技、健康科技及教育科技的發展。我們認為半導體、軟體、電子商務和網際網路領域有良好的投資潛力。例如,電動車和雲端計算需要高效能的半導體和電子元器件。我們看到半導體產業提供了超額的股息收益率,尤其是在台灣。在永續投資方面,我們也認為電動車公司及其上游供應商具有投資價值。

最後,由於各國政府與企業都在尋求更穩定安全的供應鏈,產業或多或少會出現去全球化或供應鏈區域化的現象,中小型企業的股票便有機會從產業回流中受益。此外,對於中小型企業股票估值的低估,也將對投資中小型企業股票帶來利多。

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.