【2022投資展望】「正常化」的投資進行式

2022年將被稱作「正常化」的一年,就像2004年和2010年一樣,貨幣政策和財政政策對全球經濟成長的支撐力度開始減弱。經過過去兩年非常寬鬆的經濟復甦振興措施後,政策制定者預計將收緊政策立場,但在通膨上升的壓力下,趨緩的經濟成長趨勢可能限制各國央行可以運用的政策工具。現階段,我們需要持續聚焦是否可能出現政策錯誤,或是市場對於經濟看法的轉變。

2020年經濟急劇萎縮後,隨著政策支持和疫苗普及的支撐下,2021年全球經濟成長強勢反彈。雖然復甦仍然持續,但成長趨勢已經放緩,而且各國復甦程度不一。Delta變種病毒的干擾持續、近日爆發的Omicron變種病毒又帶來更加令人擔憂的威脅、全球供應鏈遭遇瓶頸,等等因素均繼續對經濟成長和通膨帶來挑戰。

政策轉變的影響

我們預期任何的緊縮政策,無論是縮減購債或是升息,都會拖累全球經濟成長半個百分點,與景氣擴張週期中期階段的放緩一致。而從總體面來看,經濟將保持積極成長。我們相信隨著默克藥廠和輝瑞製藥研發出新冠肺炎特效藥有成,服務業將彌補製造業的復甦停滯,成為下一個成長的產業,為「重啟貿易」點燃希望。

在這種總體環境下,可能使股市遭遇挫折,就如同2004年和2010年在緩解通膨和收緊寬鬆政策的過程中,股市出現約5-10%的調整;市場估值略微偏高,也加劇了市場拋售的條件。

在升息方面,相較美國聯準會公布的升息預測,市場普遍預期2023年後升息次數將減少,但短期內政策制定者的立場可能轉向收緊。也就是說,聯準會可能會把更迅速的緊縮政策作為積極應對通膨的處理方式。

在縮減購債方面,我們則認為,縮債對債券投資人的衝擊不會太大。畢竟,比起2013年聯準會無預警公布開始縮減購債,市場瞬間引發恐慌潮,當今的債券投資人早已從2020年底就開始為寬鬆貨幣的正常化做準備。更重要的是,相較於2013年,現在的新興市場處於更強勢的地位,印度、印尼等國從貿易逆差發展成貿易順差,新興市場債券的整體報酬率也高於美國國債。

棘手的通膨問題

市場對全球通膨風險的預期將成為投資人展望未來的關鍵主軸。雖然我們認為目前許多的通膨壓力,包含供應鏈受阻和能源市場供應緊張,可能隨著各國封鎖措施放寬而消失,但市場也愈來愈憂心通膨造成的薪資溢出效應。若聯準會對於通膨的反應落後實際通膨,有可能導致未來更鷹派的緊縮政策,而應對這項風險,將是獲得亮眼投資報酬的關鍵。

不斷上升的通膨預期
1-normalisation-in-motion資料來源:彭博,2021年11月。

大宗商品方面,預計價格將依循典型的十年週期上升。大宗商品的供不應求,我們認為在市場擴大釋出供應量前,大宗商品的價格將持續上漲。在亞洲,鑒於其向來的價格僵固性、電價穩定協議及時滯效應,亞洲經濟體對能源價格上漲的通膨敏感度較低。

儘管亞洲屬於商品進口大區,但亞洲的央行已證明其有能力忽略商品價格的上漲。比起認為通膨會產生長期不良影響,亞洲的央行更傾向將通膨視為經濟成長的「隱性稅」,意思就是,通膨是經濟成長必然的連帶產物,只要運用政策將通膨速度控制,就不須過度擔憂,也不會對薪資或更廣泛的價格帶來持續性影響。其次,自2008年全球金融危機以來,亞洲各國一直在應對失業或就業不足問題。過去兩年對人才流動的限制,加劇了亞洲勞動市場的疲軟,這將限制大宗商品價格擴大為更普遍的價格壓力。

投資影響

股票

鑒於股票目前在經濟週期中的定位,我們仍適度看好股票。經濟的持續復甦將帶來新一輪上行的可能性,為股票帶來利多,不過當前離2020年市場普遍看漲的態勢還有一段距離。由於目前市場估值過高(尤其是美國),我們正在尋找更多戰略性機會。預期市場將更加動盪。供應鏈問題的持續,也將對資本支出產生影響,因此開始在中期看好原物料和工業等類股。

鑒於美國股票估值過高及貨幣政策的加快緊縮,我們預期新興市場的未來表現將優於成熟市場。針對新興市場,因為中國將新冠肺炎確診數清零設定為政策目標,所以我們對新興市場的評估並不會以解封與否作為主要的判斷標準,更多的是基於政策穩定的樂觀看法。新興市場方面,我們預計一些有吸引力的機會將占主導地位,鑒於中國資訊科技業在過去六到九個月所面臨的挑戰,我們正密切關注中美兩國科技股的競爭。

在持續的經濟復甦中,價值型股票也可望在未來一年有良好的表現。過去由於價值型股票處於落後狀態,因此現階段存在獲利空間。然而,獲利的持續時間取決於市場對未來利率走向的看法。

債券

雖然我們看好股票市場,但我們也認為債券具有投資意義。在美國,長期而言,相對於美國投資級債券,我們更傾向於美國高收益債券。鑒於亞洲的通膨前景樂觀,我們對升息較不憂心。除了韓國和新加坡,我們認為亞洲各國在美國聯準會前收緊貨幣政策的意願有限,其中泰國和印尼的央行則可能保持利率不變,由於亞洲各國利率前景及債務狀況各不相同,這為亞洲當地政府債券提供了戰略性的投資機會。我們還預期,2022年亞洲的成長前景改善,將吸引更多資本和海外直接投資的流入,提高亞洲貨幣兌美元的升值潛力。

亞洲固定收益方面,鑒於中國房地產業持續面臨違約風險,亞洲高收益債券受到衝擊,不過,只要把握超額報酬機會,謹慎選擇投資標的,仍有良好的投資機會。此外,亞洲投資級債權的合約仍保持健康。我們認為當前全球的經濟成長預測和過渡性通膨將繼續支撐風險性資產,亞洲信貸在全球對報酬率的追尋下將持續受益。

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