【2022投資展望】認識「共同富裕」下的新中國

由於中國政府希望透過「共同富裕」實現更公平的社會發展,中國的經濟成長正在放緩。不過,共同富裕仍然可以為投資人帶來具有吸引力的投資機會。短期來看,中國政策不確定性增加,但長期而言,中國作為不斷擴張的經濟體,其市場領導地位仍然值得投資人單獨對中國市場進行資產配置。

2021年11月下旬,中國的經濟正從對網路平台、私人教育和房地產業的一系列監管打擊中復甦。這些監管政策是共同富裕的一部分,目的為改善中國社會的「平等和公平」。

什麼是共同富裕?

中國總書記習近平於2021年8月提出「共同富裕」的概念,共同富裕便成為各級政府新的施政重點。2020年初新冠肺炎疫情開始時,為了穩定經濟,包括中國人民銀行在內的全球央行向市場投入大量的流動資金,中國的股市及房價因此強勢反彈,加劇了不平等現象。而共同富裕的目的,正是藉由擴大中產階級及提高低收入族群的生活水平,讓中國社會更加公平。除了對特定產業進行監管外,加重稅收也讓政府重新分配收入,進而實現共同富裕。

中國收入不平等的情況已經加劇
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資料來源:Statista,2021年11月

我們預計,共同富裕政策將對醫療保健、消費及資訊科技產業造成重大影響。例如,為了讓人人都能獲得基本的藥物和醫療服務,中國以政府之力進一步擴大藥物集中採購方案,進而壓低藥品價格;又或者,中國政府希望透過提高稅收達到更公平的收入分配,以促進整體消費。但與此同時,提高消費稅卻很可能提高白酒等高端產品的價格,從而打擊市場。

雖然中國已經對部分資訊科技類股進行監管,但我們相信中國的政策制定者也充分認知到,科技是創造公平競爭環境的一大利器,對國家的發展舉足輕重。例如,網際網路的出現消弭了資訊不對等;金融創新在提高效率的同時降低了金融中介的成本;人工智慧及製造業中機器人使用的增加,除了降低製造成本,也提高了製造的靈活性,讓消費者從中受益;新能源汽車方面,科技則在降低新動力系統的成本及提升使用者體驗方面,發揮了關鍵作用。

重新調整中國的成長預期

2021年的嚴格監管,衝擊了中國網際網路巨擘的盈利並拖累股價表現。房地產部分,由於開發商難以像過去一樣獲得信貸,房地產的銷售和投資力道減少,佔中國GDP 15%的房地產業低壓籠罩;若納入家具銷售、建材、家電等相關產業,受監管產業的產值可能達到中國GDP 25%,監管很可能導致2022年GDP的成長幅度放緩至5%。此外,由於政府的價格管制以及市場需求疲弱,生產者價格可能在2021年第四季度達到頂峰,而消費者價格則會在1.5至2%的穩定範圍內。

由於經濟放緩,中國的政策制定者很可能透過降低存款準備金利率放寬政策,注入流動資金或提供針對性的信用貸款支援;增加基礎建設支出也可能成為政府的手段之一。雖然中國政府堅持「房住不炒」的立場,但並未否定對房地產業提供較寬鬆的政策,例如重新設定按揭貸款的配額。

鑒於美國和歐洲等成熟市場的國內經濟規模大,預計中國GDP成長放緩對成熟市場的影響相對有限。中國經濟放緩主要將影響到向中國大量出口商品、或依賴中國資本流入的國家,包括新加坡、韓國、馬來西亞和越南,因為中國是這些國家的重要出口國。同時,澳洲、智利和南非也大量向中國出口商品,而中國對南美和非洲的外國直接投資也可能減緩,為該地區的經濟成前景帶來不確定性。

最後,儘管中國經濟成長的放緩可能會拖累新興經濟體和亞洲經濟體,但我們認為,拖累的經濟可以透過財政刺激來抵銷。總結來說,中國的經濟成長放緩將拖累全球經濟,但不太可能阻礙全球復甦。

投資影響及看法

儘管近期中國的成長軌跡出現顛簸,但未來十年內,中國的經濟很有機會能在亞洲及新興市場繼續保持主導地位。因此,我們認為仍然值得對中國進行單獨配置。

中國股票-共同富裕的政策框架下,不斷擴大的中產階級人口將提升消費,尤其有利於能夠吸引千禧一代、Z世代及年輕家庭的商品和服務的公司。硬體、人工智慧及新能源領域的科技公司也將表現良好。能夠提供高品質和低成本產品及服務的本土醫療保健公司也可能受益。另一方面,由於政府為讓消費者減少不必要開支,教育和房地產業不太可能成為受益者。

由於中國在MSCI新興市場指數中的占比預計將在未來幾年達到50%,投資人若追求多元化投資新興市場,可以將新興市場(排除中國)策略納入其中。我們認為,其他新興市場中經常被忽視的股票也為價值投資者提供了令人興奮的機會及巨大的上升潛力。

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