2021年投資展望-固定收益

瀚亞投資(新加坡)固定收益團隊認為,美國10年期公債殖利率2021年升幅可能受限,有利亞洲債券前景。此外,中國政府推出新融資規定,或會降低當地房地產業的風險承擔程度,對亞洲高收益債市是利多。同時,美元疲軟也為亞洲當地貨幣債券帶來投資機會。

Q1、2021年長期公債殖利率是否走高?將如何影響亞洲債券走勢?

固定收益投資總監Low Guan Yi:2021年全球經濟成長面對下行風險,加上美國聯準會的政策立場明確,我們認為美國10年期公債殖利率不會超過1%。全球經濟活動自2020年Q2的極低水準逐漸回升,預計Q4起至2021年初回升步伐將放緩,到了2021年底,OECD國家產量可能較疫情前水準低2%〜4%。

當初期湧現的累積需求被消化後,商品消費開支將會減少,需要面對面互動的服務消費方面,將繼續承受壓力。新一波疫情加上若已開發國家未延長財政支持計劃,使家庭收入下跌,均為經濟增長帶來更多即時風險。

此外,聯準會承諾維持政策利率不變,直至美國勞工市場達到最高就業水準,以及通膨一段期間內平均處於2%。也就是說,至2023年前,美國政策利率將維持在0%〜0.25%。

上述情況提高亞洲政府債券的吸引力,因為亞洲通膨率偏低,且亞洲主權債券與美國國庫券之間的利差可觀。美國選後,地緣政治環境將變得較能預測,也鼓勵資金流入亞洲,加上區域抗疫管理較佳,為成長前景提供支援,故看好亞洲債券市場前景。

Q2、是否改變高收益債投資策略?

固定收益基金經理Leong Wai Mei:2020年美國聯準會推出前所未見的因應政策,亞洲高收益債券表現大多受相關政策影響。當局宣佈無限量購買國庫券和不動產抵押證券,加上實施企業債券購買計劃,帶動利率下跌和刺激市場對美國企業債券的需求。

亞洲高收益債券2020年3月和4月的跌市期間表現相對強韌,但今年僅上漲0.55%1,表現遜於上漲1.1%的美國高收益債券,2021年聯準會政策方向將繼續持續影響市場。

亞洲各國政府為企業提供短暫的紓困扶持措施,鑑於財政狀況緊張,短期內可能不會加推援助措施,預期違約率處於可控水準,但投資者仍需要審慎應對市況。

另一方面,亞洲高收益債市占比顯著的中國房地產業違約風險可能會下降。中國政府推出新融資規定,要求有意融資的發展商按「三條紅線」(即融資門檻)進行評估。有關融資門檻包括:剔除預收款後發展商的債務與資產比率不得超過70%、淨債務與股本比率不得大於100%,以及規定短期借貸不得超過現金儲備水準。上述對銀行借貸的限制應有助降低業內的風險承擔程度。

總括而言,種種因素皆有利於亞洲高收益債券可望在2021年有不錯的表現。低利率將繼續促使投資者追求收益,而亞洲提供具吸引力的收益率,預期將率先擺脫疫情和復甦,預測亞洲高收益債券的違約率將低於新興市場和美國高收益債券,但估值仍較歷史水準吸引。見圖一。

圖:亞洲高收益企業債券殖利率和利差

亞洲高收益企業債券殖利率和利差

資料來源:美銀美林亞洲美元高收益企業債券指數,截至2020年10月10日(每週數據)。

Q3、踏入新一年,看好哪些亞洲貨幣?

固定收益基金經理吳榮仁:2021年亞洲貨幣出現令人振奮的投資機會,特別是在預期美元走弱的情況下。

過去六個月不少亞洲國家表現穩健,部份源自於其對疫情的防控管理奏效。舉例,預期中國和台灣的2020年國內生產總值將是正成長;部份亞洲國家仍有財政空間提供額外扶持措施,以應對疫情對需求造成的衝擊。

在疫情引致經濟衰退的環境下,亞洲相對成為亮點,當地股市(以及當地貨幣)可望受惠於短期資金帶動的資金流入。人民幣受惠於經常帳穩健和資金流入本地債市,有望持續表現強勁。

新台幣和韓圜可能受惠於中美技術脫鈎、美元走勢疲軟。此外,印度盧比和印尼盾等高息貨幣的基本面轉弱,可受惠於全球投資者追求收益和利差的趨勢。

1截至2020年10月底。亞洲高收益債券以摩根大通亞洲信貸指數 – 非投資級別債券指數為代表。亞洲投資級別債券以摩根大通亞洲信貸指數 – 投資級別債券指數為代表。美國高收益債券以彭博巴克萊美國高收益債券指數為代表。
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