2021年投資展望-資產配置

資產配置是老生常談,但真正著手並不容易,尤其是經歷疫情洗禮下的投資市場更是充滿挑戰,資產配置到底該怎麼做?瀚亞投資(新加坡)投資組合顧問(EPA)團隊認為,全球GDP將於2021年下半年起高於長期趨勢,即使核心物價加速上升,也不足以讓利率上調,而團隊看淡大部份已發展國家政府債券,反而看好個别股票。

Q1、2021年起,哪些宏觀經濟議題值得注意?

EPA投資總監Craig Bell有兩大方向值得注意,首先是美國財政政策前景,其次是新冠肺炎疫情發展。在撰寫本文時,財政政策方向尚未明朗,但我們認為政策傾向進一步擴張;疫情危機暴露出寬鬆貨幣政策的侷限性,促使政策官員共同制定財政刺激政策,緩解外部需求的衝擊。

即使疫情逐漸消退,各國政府仍有極大誘因繼續擴張財政,尤其是低通膨期間。以美國為例,財政僵局可能持續至2021年,須視參議院最終的議席分布而定;儘管如此,美國總統當選人拜登致力修補過去川普執政時期兩黨分化局面,希望在2021年1月或全年促使兩黨達成共識。美國財政政策方向將是未來債券殖利率走勢的關鍵,可能推高長債孳息。

對於新冠肺炎,各國政府均不希望再次採取嚴厲封鎖措施,即使有,市場也不會太過憂慮,透過加強貨幣寬鬆措施,使風險資產持續獲得支持。此外,疫苗問世意味著民眾生活可望由2021年春季起逐步恢復正常,有利於市場的風險氣氛。

我們對風險性資產依舊保持樂觀,原因在於有財政政策支持,縱使疫情惡化也不會長期困擾市場,相較於債券未展現顯著投資價值,投資將更傾向股票。

Q2、資產配置有哪些挑戰?踏入2021年,您會怎樣部署投資組合?

EPA投資總監Joanna Ong低利環境使資產價格與實質經濟脫鈎,建構穩健的投資組合仍是一大挑戰,在此情況下,分散投資宜多不宜少。當市況波動加劇期間,資產類别相關性會上升,但從中長期角度來看,不同資產類別的傳統相關性應會展現,反映分散投資的優勢。由此可見,投資者需要採取中線投資,才能享受分散資產帶來的「免費午餐」。

目前債券殖利率偏低,加上股票估值在中期最多處於中性水準,意味作出資產配置時應考慮把投資範圍擴展至傳統債券和股票資產類别以外,若涉足房地產或黃金等另類資產或實物資產,則可提升投資組合的長線預期報酬,進一步分散投資。

我們看淡大部份已開發國家政府債券,原因在於零報酬風險。疫苗有望問世,加上貨幣和財政擴張政策,可推動家庭和企業需求,因瀚亞基本預測是,2021年經濟將實現正成長,透過運用現金及沽售其他低債息固定收益資產所得的資金,來建立個别股票部位。

Q3、目前貨幣和財政應對措施是前所未見,加上美國聯準會改採平均通膨目標,長線投資人是否應考慮抗通膨資產?

Joanna疫情發生前,美國經濟在寬鬆貨幣政策支持下,出現歷來最長的成長期,失業率在低位徘徊,通膨依然溫和。聯準會的平均通膨目標新政策目的是推高通膨預期,而市場初步反應是債息上升,長債殖利率升幅高於短債,令殖利率曲線趨於陡斜。

不過,我們認為市場對聯準會單純透過前瞻性指引來實現2%平均通膨目標的信心不大。市場認為,美國正面臨日本「迷失十年」的通貨緊縮風險,憂心通膨及通膨預期將步向不斷走低的惡性循環,若長債殖利率在2021年上升,聯準會或許得採取更積極的對策。

Craig聯準會很可能維持現有政策,直至通膨持續一段時間高於2%目標。回顧歷史,日本央行在1999年降息至0%,其後僅在2000〜2001年及2006〜2008年期間,短暫維持政策利率高於0%。目前因需求仍處於週期前段,距離勞工和資源短缺的時間尚遠,因此通膨難以持續上升。

與此同時,疫情加快應用科技,加上全球人口結構老化,導致長遠通膨放緩的趨勢可能持續更久。外需轉內需增加及相關成本上升,或會帶來物價上漲的壓力。

我們預期是,GDP將在2021年下半年高於長期趨勢,屆時核心通膨將會上升,但可能只是短暫現象,不足以引發貨幣政策反應。一旦通膨重現,投資者必須留意投資報酬的影響,隨著實質孳息減少、購買力下滑,現金存款吸引力將下降,可能使資產配置從現金轉向其它投資。

在其他條件不變的情況下,傳統政府債券及信用債券提供固定/名義回報,因此會受通膨環境所拖累,通膨連結債是值得注意的另類工具,但是,目前估值不具吸引力,審慎挑選將是關鍵所在。因利率處於零水平,加上殖利率曲線相對平坦,持有已發展市場政府債券的長遠裨益令人質疑。

部份行業的企業收益會跟隨物價上漲,股票也被視為對沖通膨的良好工具。然而,兩者間關係並非線性,投資者也需要考慮投產成本變化及價格對消費需求的不利影響。因此,投資者必須慎選標的。

圖:央行政策可能持續保持貨幣寬鬆央行政策可能持續保持貨幣寬鬆

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