【收益優化】2020年11月基金評論

市場現況:

疫苗進展順利與美國總統大選結果明朗(拜登確定獲得多數選舉人團票),激勵本月金融市場表現。本月的風險偏好情緒強烈,相對於十月(十月是風險性資產自三月以來表現最差的月份)。

11月,大多數的風險性資產為正報酬,而傳統低風險性資產,如黃金、銀、英國政府公債與德國政府公債的報酬為負。美國政府公債帶來少許正貢獻,可能因為本月的刺激政策規模低於預期。本月投資級債的表現依然良好,而美國和歐洲高收益債與新興市場債的表現更優異。新興市場貨幣表現良好,且南歐股票指數為股票市場主要正貢獻者。

投資級債的利差繼續收斂,而2020年大部分時間皆維持這個趨勢。這個現象表示,投資人持有高品質公司債而非較「安全」的政府公債,所要求的風險溢酬逐漸降低。

從區域來看,美國公司債表現優於歐洲與英國公司債。長天期美國投資級債表現強勁,BBB等級的債券也在主要市場中表現良好。

在此情況下,基金表現優異,今年表現為穩定正報酬。11月,基金表現主要受到長天期美國投資級債,與主要投資價值型股票所拉抬。我們持有的高收益債與金融債,也為基金帶來正貢獻。本月,存續期間帶來的貢獻較小,因為政府公債殖利率(與價格)表現平緩。

儘管大幅減碼高收益債部位,基金仍然表現優於基準指標,主要受益於長天期投資及債與股票部位。

投組調整:

我們偏好的投資級債之估值持續增加,所以我們本月減碼長天期美元投資級公司債,這也是我們過去一段時間偏好的區塊,且持續發現一些具吸引力的投資機會。此外,高收益債的投組變化不大。對比於中性配置的33.3%,我們維持高收益債的曝險部位為12%。

我們的存續期間為2.5年,仍然比基準低了約4年。我們的存續期間大部分來自德國公債,其次為美元與英鎊計價資產。

股票方面,我們仍然主要偏好價值股,包括近期股價受到經濟封鎖影響,但當經濟重啟時,仍有上漲潛力的價值股。持股比重在本月微幅上升,占整體投組的3.7%。

為了要降低風險,我們主要由安全的政府公債(德國公債)與現金組成的無風險性資產比重上升至30-35%。本月,由於以英鎊計價之2028年到期的義大利政府公債表現良好,我們將其賣出。

投資級債方面,收益優化基金中,投資級債占比最高,且我們預期有技術性的因素支持未來資產價格。事實上,在未來幾個月中,我們預見投資級債淨發行量下降,而一般投資人與央行對其的需求上升。也就是說,投資者應該要注意的是,雖然仍有一些投資機會,但利差已來到歷史新低,表示邊際誤差是低的。

最後,雖然今年是個非常不尋常且充滿挑戰的一年,我們對全球經濟的前景保持樂觀。對2021年感到樂觀的原因來自於:疫苗即將可以施打、美國總統大選結果明朗,與財政與貨幣政策的穩定支持。

 
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