摘要

 

印度新版GST稅率9月22日啟動,透過降稅措施來因應美國關稅挑戰,並改善民生、進一步刺激消費,有助於印度消費相關族群發酵並帶動投資市場信心。


印度政府推出新版GST稅率架構,將於9月22日起實施,這樣改革將嘉惠農民、中小企業、中產階級、再生能源、婦女與青年,透過減稅刺激國內消費並緩解美國加徵關稅之影響,預估新稅率將使通膨約下降1.1%,並進一步刺激消費。

GST稅率如何調整?

根據印度財政部公告,新版GST採5%和18%兩段式稅率的結構,12%和28%品項調整為較低稅率,豪華車、菸草及香菸等奢侈品與有害品將是少數40%高稅率。主要相關降稅分類如下:

  • 18%降至0%:個人壽險與健康險等保險費用。
  • 12%降至5%:個人護理與清潔用品、日常食品、零食與調味品、醫療保健用品、農業設備、文具用品等。
  • 28%降至18%:耐用家電與電子用品(含冷氣、電視、洗衣機、冰箱、手機及電腦等)、小型汽車與兩輪車、水泥與建材。

哪些產業或行業最為受惠? 

瀚亞投信分析,GST稅率直接受惠產業,較集中在消費層面,例如:耐久財、可選消費,像是汽機車與相關零部件、鐘錶/鞋類/服飾等零售通路消費,甚至連醫療保險都涵蓋在內,預期直接、間接受惠的產業面向相當廣,可以對市場帶來正面效應。

積極振興內需 抵抗外部風險

美國對印度大宗輸出商品追加至50%的懲罰性關稅,對印度投資市場帶來沉重壓力,也引發外資持續撤出。外資8月份撤資規模達340億盧比(約40 億美元),創下六、七個月高點。

瀚亞投信認為,50%的關稅可視為短線利空,但結構性風險有限,主要因印度長線具備強大的內需及數位轉型趨勢,有望持續支撐經濟成長。綜合而言,市場在內需政策利多與外部風險中搖擺,短線信心偏敏感,中期仍須留意「政策支持能否穩定資金流入」;然放遠中長線,投資人關注仍會回歸基本面,產業若未受到關稅影響,其獲利財報、營收增長等能夠展現增長,加上關稅議題逐步淡化,2026年補漲動能及發酵的機會反而大。

投資建議方面,瀚亞印度基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金)持股佈局以金融、消費族群為主,相關布局產業瞄準印度高消費轉型商機消費題材,受惠於GST稅率下調的政策,並看好外資後續回流金融類股,投資人可把握目前投資印度中長期的良好進場時機。

瀚亞印度基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金)除前收A級別外,新增前收B配息與後收S配息級別,並提供新台幣、美元、人民幣等多元幣別選擇,投資印度選擇更多元。

資料來源:瀚亞投信,2025/9/12。

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