【亞洲債券】2020年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

11月份,經濟復甦主導金融市場,支撐風險性資產的表現。在這種環境下,亞洲高收益債市表現良好,摩根大通亞洲債券指數上漲1.27%。

本月初,受到美國總統大選結果不確定性,引發了11月4日風險性資產和美國公債的日內波動,十年期美國公債殖利率從波段高峰下降至低點約20點,然而,殖利率隨後反彈,因為拜登當選美國總統,儘管對國會「藍潮」的期望有所減弱。

 

美國公債受到新冠疫苗好消息刺激(製藥商報告顯示具很高的療效),殖利率走高。整體而言,儘管疫苗前景樂觀,但美國新冠肺炎再限制了美國公債殖利率的上升,因此本月公債殖利率略有下降,十年期公債殖利率下降3個基點至0.84%,2年期公債殖利率基本上維持0.15%。

 

美國較低的利率支撐亞洲債市的表現,同時,風險偏好上升影響債券利差收斂,特別是高收益債。高收益債表現較投資級債佳,斯里蘭卡等高收益主權債券在近幾個月表現不佳之後逐漸回溫,領先其他債券。企業債中,金屬、採礦和博奕等循環產業因經濟復甦表現佳。

 

然而,中國債市表現疲軟,整體市場表現不佳。在美國宣布禁止對中國軍方控制的公司進行投資後,部分中國準主權債受到影響,當地國有企業出現部分違約也影響投資人情緒。

 

基金總覽:

11月份,有鑑於高收益債券表現較佳,基金加碼高收益債券帶來主要正貢獻。整體而言,加碼中國房地產高收益債和印尼公司債帶來正貢獻,同時,加碼印尼主權債及準主權債也是本月績效領先的重要原因之一。

然而,中國地方政府相關債券則表現不佳,抵銷中國其他債券的貢獻,此外,減碼馬來西亞準主權債也影響基金表現。

年初至今,由於美國利率大幅下降,基金維持較長的存續期間帶動績效表現。以各類資產來看,基金加碼中國高收益房地產債推升績效表現,由於房地產銷售反彈及較佳流動性為投資人情緒帶來支撐,整體而言,中國房地產業是今年以來表現最好的產業之一。

此外,基金加碼印尼準主權債、印度公用事業和金融債也推升基金績效。

然而,儘管今年三月以來市場反彈,高收益債券仍落後投資級債市表現,因此,基金加碼高收益債券影響表現,同時,印尼房地產和中國地方政府相關債券表現不佳也影響績效。

未來展望:

最近幾週,有關疫苗發展的消息提振市場情緒,有鑑於生產、物流和社交等困難,短期內對實體經濟的影響仍受到限制。在上一季度強勁反彈之後,由於歐洲和美國的新冠疫情確診人數回升,第4季的經濟增長將大幅放緩。但是,我們預計這些負面因素影響將是短暫的。隨著疫苗預計將被推出,經濟將會逐步開放,全球增長可望於2021年強勁反彈。

有效控制新冠肺炎的亞洲市場仍處優勢地位,可以從全球經濟的增長中受益,同時,國內需求恢復,預計將支撐亞洲債券的表現。投資人持續在低利率的環境下追求收益,具有較高殖利率的亞洲債市可望吸引全球投資人資金進駐。儘管目前經濟成長相較強勁,但是產出缺口仍大且通膨壓力較低,全球央行貨幣政策短期不至收緊。

但是,我們意識到債券利差已經收斂,市場尚存在一些不確定性,例如中美之間地緣政治緊張局勢。因此,我們將審慎選債,增持較高品質的公司,同時,尋找具有機會的標的,包含先前因為市場雜訊而貶值的債券,並且增加某些亞洲國家的當地貨幣債券曝險。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.