【美高收債】2020年12月基金評論

市場總覽:

受惠於新冠疫苗的正面消息及美國國會通過新一輪財政刺激方案,12月份,美國市場延續漲勢。

由於市場對於2021年通膨預期,中長天期公債殖利率微幅上升,10年期公債殖利率上升9個基點至0.93%,30年期公債殖利率上升7個基點至1.65%。

儘管高收債供給持續增加,美國高收益債市12月份利差持續收斂。

美國高收益債12月份上漲1.91%,年初至今漲幅6.07%;利差收斂48個基點至387個基點。

風險偏好的市場環境推升較低評級高收益債券持續表現優異。

12月份:BB 1.55%;B 1.70%;CCC及以下 4.11%

年初至今:BB 8.62%;B 3.66%;CCC及以下2.86%

相比投資級債,高收益債券發行量在12月份依舊攀升,總發行量達300億美元,帶動年初至今總發行量達4,320億美元,年增率67%。

12月份,資金淨流入20億美元,帶動2020年資金淨流入達540億美元。

基金總覽:

12月份,基金在食品通路(批發和供應)部位帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻3個基點和2個基點。

相反地,基金在油田設備與服務及有線電視的選債,為主要影響基金報酬的因素,分別影響7個基點和3個基點。

年初至今,基金在通訊服務及油田設備、服務的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻35和20個基點。

相反地,基金在金融服務及博弈產業的選債則影響基金表現,分別影響42和37個基點。

未來展望:

利差已收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,但我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

由於企業利潤成長,加上其充裕的自由現金流以償還債務,或以到期日展延的方式,預期整體企業信用狀況將持續改善。

我們認為高收益債違約率、墮落天使的前景皆呈現正面的發展。

在低利率和利差收斂的環境下,高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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