摘要
印度與巴基斯坦之間的衝突升溫,加上美國關稅談判尚未落幕,對印度投資市場有何影響?
印度武裝部隊針對巴基斯坦和巴基斯坦佔領的克什米爾的九個恐怖目標,包括穆里德克(Muridke)和巴哈瓦爾布爾(Bahawalpur),進行導彈襲擊,這是繼克什米爾發生的致命襲擊事件後,印巴雙方更進一步的衝突升溫。在此之前兩國驅逐了對方的外交官和公民,下令關閉邊界並關閉彼此的空域,並暗示即將採取軍事行動。
投資因應與看法
瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,分析自1947年印巴統治權分裂以來,兩國之間發生多次衝突。儘管目前事件發展雙方仍持續對峙中,然而國際評論普遍認為印度在外交與軍事上某種程度的回應是可以預期的;而正是這些行動進一步將衝突限制在可控的範圍。此外在過去的克什米爾危機中,美國的外交在將雙方從危機邊緣拉回來方面發揮了關鍵作用。
美國國務卿馬可·盧比奧計劃與巴基斯坦和印度領導人進行會談,並轉達川普總統對區域緊張情勢的關切。同時包括來自中國外交部與聯合國也都敦促以巴雙方透過「有意義的相互接觸和和平手段」解決衝突等。
從過去幾次主要的衝突事件對股市影響可以得到的結論:衝突規模受控制、下跌幅度有限,事件落幕後上漲幅度甚於下跌幅度。呼籲投資人先冷靜觀望以對,並逢有較大市場波動或拉回時,採取中長線累積布局。
歷史上印巴衝突後股市表現

資料來源: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs,2025/05,瀚亞投信整理美印關稅談判可望底定
此外,美國川普關稅戰談判下,印度傳出將把對美國部分產業進口商品關稅降至零。實際上,印度具備幾項足以抵抗甚至協商的條件,包括:
林庭樟表示,印度具備龐大內需與貨幣政策空間,並具備有五大經濟利基,假設全球發生貿易壁壘與經濟衰退,印度的機會仍比其他經濟體好很多;印度股市短期層面進入超跌區,且相對獲利低檔狀況已經過去,一旦關稅談判確定後恐懼落底,印度股票基金即可逢低承接。
歷史上印巴衝突後股市表現

資料來源: 瀚亞投信,2025/5。Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
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