摘要
- 隨著結構性成長主題帶動企業獲利及自由現金流成長，加上企業治理改革令企業更重視股東報酬，亞洲市場的股息潛力持續提升。
- 在成長股主導的股市升勢中，傳統高股息策略或面臨挑戰，因為主要篩選當前殖利率最高股票的策略，往往偏好成熟企業及價值型產業。
- 採取前瞻性亞洲股票收益策略，有望把握穩定收益、股息成長及配息回升這三種互補性報酬來源，助投資人實現具吸引力的總報酬。
債券殖利率上升，加上亞洲股市強勁上漲，可能促使投資人重新評估股息投資策略。然而，我們的分析顯示，透過採取前瞻性亞洲股票收益策略，有望把握穩定收益、股息成長及配息回升這三種互補性報酬來源，助投資人實現具吸引力的總報酬。
股息的不同階段
一間中國貨車引擎製造商、一間台灣半導體服務公司，以及一間新加坡電訊集團，究竟有何共通點？乍看之下，三者的共通點似乎不多。然而，三間公司分別展示了股息如何循不同途徑為投資人帶來報酬。
就中國貨車引擎製造商而言，我們觀察到股息隨著基本面改善而回升的機會。此前，產業氣氛低迷，掩蓋了中國以舊換新補貼、汰換需求，以及排放標準升級帶來的潛在好處。隨著該公司的獲利及現金流改善，其配息能力也有所增強。
台灣半導體服務公司方面，我們預計其強勁的結構性獲利成長將支撐股息成長。該公司從事先進半導體封裝及測試業務，因此能夠受惠於人工智慧（AI）基礎建設發展帶來的投資機會。此外，該公司公佈的配息比率達70%，使獲利成長能更直接地轉化為股東配息。
至於新加坡電訊集團方面，我們的初步判斷是其成熟業務為穩定配息提供支持。然而，該公司的股息潛力不止於此。透過資產循環及提升股東報酬的舉措，該公司在原有的穩健收益基礎上，增加了新的股息成長動力。
這三間公司處於不同的股息階段，說明了收益型投資策略應著眼未來。最具吸引力的投資機會未必來自當前殖利率最高的股票。因此，我們不會僅著眼於當前殖利率，而會評估一間公司的整個股息週期。
在投資人正思考以下三個重要問題之際，這一點尤其重要：
1. 在債券殖利率較高的環境下，為何仍持有配息股？
2. 亞洲股市強勁上升，採取收益型投資策略會否犧牲成長？
3. 股息投資策略能否擺脫防守或價值投資風格的限制？
要回答這三個問題，都始於同一個關鍵：不只看眼前的股息殖利率。
殖利率僅為收益投資的一環
債券殖利率較高，導致收益型資產吸引投資資金的競爭加劇。然而債券與配息股在投資組合中發揮不同作用，並承擔不同風險。因此，資產配置決策時應建基於投資人對總報酬、收益成長及風險水平的要求，而非單純比較股票的當前股息率與債券殖利率。
- 當前股息
- 未來股息成長
- 資本增值
從歷史經驗來看，股息一直是亞洲股票長期報酬的重要來源。在過去20年約佔總報酬的40%，突顯其在長線財富增值方面的重要性。與此同時，亞洲企業的股息潛力持續提升。
- 受惠於人工智慧相關投資及基礎建設支出等結構性成長主題，亞洲各地企業的獲利預期持續改善。
- 亞洲企業（主要為北亞企業）的自由現金流正以前所未有的速度成長，預計將支持企業增加配息及股份回購。
- 中國及韓國等市場的企業治理改革也促使企業更重視股東報酬，為收益型投資帶來更多機會。
圖1. 亞洲企業自由現金流加速成長
資料來源：瀚亞投資。里昂證券亞太區（日本除外）投資範圍。2026年10月6日
兼顧收益與成長
在成長股主導的股市升勢中，傳統高股息策略或面臨挑戰，因為主要篩選當前殖利率最高股票的策略，往往偏好成熟企業及價值型產業，並忽略再投資於新興成長機會的公司。
然而，透過在投資組合中結合配息穩定、股息成長及殖利率回升的股票，我們使投資人能同時實現收益與成長。股息成長或殖利率回升的企業，往往先受惠於獲利成長及對股東報酬的日益關注，然後再成為傳統高殖利率股票。
這種不只著眼於當前股息殖利率的投資方式，我們得以維持收益紀律及避免過度集中風險，同時參與台灣及韓國科技及人工智慧相關投資機會。我們的目標既不是為追求最高殖利率而放棄成長，也不是為追逐成長而忽略收益，而是力求兼顧可持續收益、股息成長及資本增值，實現均衡的總報酬表現。
透過不受風格限制的主動策略提升韌性
新興市場債券已不再是1990年代集中於受壓債務的小眾市場，其市場廣度、信用品質及可投資性均超出不少投資人的既有認知。截至2025年12月，全球新興市場可交易債務總額達52兆美元，約佔全球未償還債券總額的31%，規模略低於美國，但高於歐盟。
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