元月行情有點冷 想領紅包靠自己!


2019年初始,全台陰雨不斷,全球投資市場更遭遇陣陣寒流,先是中國、台灣製造業PMI等景氣數據不太妙,又有蘋果下調財測擾亂股市表現,緊接著中美貿易戰「關稅休兵90天」磋商即將再起,投資人所期盼的元月紅包行情充滿挑戰。

越來越接近農曆年關,紅包話題自然也少不了,政府也計畫發放「分享經濟紅利」的大紅包給經濟弱勢及低薪者作為補助,國發會也可能推出刺激消費方案。

對於投資人來說,過去一年想從金融市場領到紅包可不簡單,就連今年元月也同樣波瀾不斷,如何降低資產波動、以及確定收益目標才是未來勝出首要關鍵。

瀚亞投資認為,三大因素將持續影響2019年的全球投資環境,包括美國利率見頂與美元走勢、全球經濟同步成長及中美貿易戰潛在威脅,也建議投資人透過各類相關性低的資產,或是採取債券持有到期策略因應,例如目標到期債券、印度股債資產,均可分散配置。

面對投資市場風雨欲來,想從投資市場領紅包,鎖定收益型標的、趁低檔布局、做好資產配置才是上策。

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Source:
1Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), share of world, 2018. Asia (excluding Australia and New Zealand).
2Source: The Brookings Institution, Wolfensohn Center for Development, “The Unprecedented Expansion Of The Global Middle Class: An Update”, Homi Kharas, February 2017. Others include Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Middle East and North Africa. F stands for forecast.
3Source: Sustainable Cities Mobility Index 2017 Bold Moves, Arcadis. Hong Kong tops the Sustainable Cities Mobility Index, while Singapore ranks eighth.
4Source: Euromonitor International, E stands for estimates, data retrieved on 30 August 2018.
5Source: Bloomberg, from 30 June 2013 to 30 June 2018, citing Singapore Department of Statistics (Singapore Retail Sales Total Ex Motor Vehicles Current Prices YoY, Non-Seasonally-Adjusted) and Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (Hong Kong Retail Sales Value YoY).
6Source: 2018 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook | Singapore, by CBRE Singapore Research.
7Source: Outbound Chinese Tourism and Consumption Trends: 2017, an online survey with 2,009 residents from Chinese mainland and 613 non-Chinese residents, conducted by Nielsen in December 2017.
8Source: the MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index
9Source: How Global is the Business of Retail? Published by CBRE Research in December 2017.
10Source: Bloomberg, data as at 30 August 2018. *12-month forward dividend yield. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future performance. Please note that there are limitations to the use of such indices as proxies for the past performance in the respective asset classes/sector. The historical performance or forecast presented is not indicative of and should not be construed as being indicative of or otherwise used as a proxy for the future or likely performance.
11Source: Bloomberg, Eastspring Investments, data as at 31 August 2018. AUS stands for Australia, SG Singapore, JP Japan, HK Hong Kong.
12Source: Bloomberg, data from 31 August 2003 to 31 August 2018, in US dollars, including Japan and Australia.

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