【美國優質債】2021年5月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場於5月份表現維持正向,企業的基本面在經濟活動解封的支撐下持續改善,每個月持續有更多的人接種新冠疫苗,但已經偏高的估值限制了市場的上行。

美國中長天期公債殖利率仍維持在高於3月初的範圍,殖利率5月小幅走低,但年初至今仍維持於高點(10年期公債殖利率本月下降7個基點至1.58%,年初至今上升65個基點)。

美國投資級債利差收窄,在基本面改善的情況下連續第二個月收斂。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數已連續八個月出現超額報酬, 5月份利差收斂4個基點至79個基點,年初至今收斂12個基點。5月份總報酬0.72%,年初至今的報酬-2.74%。

相較美國公債,5月份各產業的投資級公司債表現均佳,其中能源債(114 bps)受到石油和天然氣價格持續上漲,而有最佳的表現。而政府機構債(2 bps)則表現較差。

相較美國公債,年初至今各產業表現均領先,地方政府債(360 bps)、能源債(360 bps)表現領先,而超主權債(16 bps)及政府機構債(37 bps)則領先較少。

投資級債5月新發行1,470億美元,年初至今發行量為8,350億美元,由於2020年受疫情和經濟活動的封鎖使發行量創高,造成發行量年增率-30%,但與其他年份相比,發行量仍高(較2019年增長40%)。

投資級債券市在5月資金淨流入為80億美元,流入量較4月降低。主要由於今年以來殖利率上升,使退休基金/保險投資相關需求上升,年初至今共流入820億美元。

基金總覽:

5月份,基金在天然氣配送和有線通訊設備領域的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了 1個基點。反之,基金在電子組裝和無線通訊相關部位則拖累表現,分別減損了2個基點和1個基點。

年初至今,基金在航空運輸和天然氣配送的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了9個基點及8個基點。反之,基金加碼銀行業和政府擔保債拖累表現,分別影響各2個基點。

未來展望:

•美國投資級債估值吸引力較先前低

−產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−預計2021年投資級債估值將在區間內盤整,我們將策略性地調整配置。

•我們對基本面的觀點如下

−基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收維持上行趨勢,我們預期經濟將會持續改善。

−然而,投資級公司槓桿上升,且可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

−新冠疫苗施打人數上升應該是經濟重啟與美國GDP增加的主要驅動因素。然而,持續的經濟復甦可能會使美國聯準會收回一些貨幣政策。

•投資級債供給增加

−2021年,投資級債發行量每月皆高於市場預期,且我們預計這個狀況將會持續一段時間。

−市場對投資級債的需求好壞參半:年初至今的負報酬可能導致資金外流;較高的殖利率可能增加投資者對投資級商品的偏好。

 
This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.