解盲第三季投資方向 瀚亞打造投資抗體

新冠肺炎疫情壟罩,投資前景在震盪中前行,第三季投資可能遭遇哪些挑戰,機會將出現在哪些市場?瀚亞投資提供第三季投資方向,解開市場盲點,為投資找抗體。

回顧全球投資市場,2020年由成長股與科技股帶領相關類股一枝獨秀,2021上半年轉為高檔震盪、類股輪動;展望第三季,預料將持續回復產業輪動表現的正常化,市場仍充滿許多投資機會,股市首選成長動能續強的美股、台股與印度股市;債市則可專注在存續期間較短、殖利率較高的高收益債券、新興市場債券。

解開2大投資盲點:通膨與利率

盲點1、全球通膨升溫,該怎麼辦?

全球通膨數據增溫,美國上升至4%以上,帶動公債殖利率走升,債券投資須留意存續期間風險。

· 投資解方:

以短存續期間的資產為主:(1)美元高收益債存續期約為4.08年,且相較於過去,目前具備違約率低、品質轉佳、存續期短三大優勢。(2)新興市場債利差收斂空間較高,外資開始回補新興本地債,新興市場匯率有望落後補漲。 

盲點2、公債殖利率彈升,要擔心嗎?

根據全球50家機構調查,美國十年期公債殖利率今年Q3預估平均值為1.8%,Q4將上升至1.88%。然而,利率上升是正向訊號,歷史經驗顯示,公債殖利率上升的期間,股市普遍上漲。

· 投資解方:

宜長期持有股票型基金:看好擁有經濟成長動能、中長線展望樂觀的地區及產業,如美國科技股、台股及印度股市,企業獲利預估持續上修,將反映於股市表現。 

股市資產:首選美、印、台

美股第一季財報營收及獲利均遠優於預期,今、明兩年獲利持續上修,大幅減緩了企業稅上調及聯準會可能較預期提早縮表的負向衝擊,建議鎖定瀚亞美國高科技基金,直接聚焦美國科技股,科技股含金量較境內同類型基金高,且為新台幣級別印度受疫情干擾將持續降低,疫苗施打見效,將受惠全球景氣成長帶動,金融、原物料、醫療及消費類股可望明顯增長,宜以瀚亞印度基金為布局首選

債券資產:高收債搭配新興債

首要觀察指標為美國聯準會動向,隨著公債殖利率看升機率增加,存續期間較低的債券相對有優勢,建議高收益債券基金可挑選美國或全球型,新興市場債券基金則可以彈性配置,增加收益來源與分散風險。

瀚亞投資-美國高收益債券基金-美元(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且配息來源可能為本金)為例,正是鎖定市值最大、流動性最高的美國高收益債市,聚焦美國為主、美元計價的高收益債券標的,且信評為BB+級或以下債券;投資組合債種靈活調整,能快速因應市場變動,推薦給長期投資人作為資產配置的常態性標的。

多重資產:強化投資組合抵抗力

希望可以降低資產波動的投資人,股債均衡持有的平衡型基金將是追漲抗跌的選擇。在市場較震盪的環境下,建議可透過台股平衡型的 瀚亞理財通基金,或者多重資產型的 瀚亞收益優化組合型基金(本基金得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券基金且配息來源可能為本金),都屬於能參與市場表現,同時又能降低波動的商品。

表、瀚亞投資第三季推薦基金清單

推薦基金 

資料來源瀚亞投資,2021/06。

 

 
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