【收益優化】2021年8月基金評論

市場現況:

對於金融市場而言,8月份表現正面,股票的表現優於債券和商品。相同於7月份,市場風險偏好的驅動因素包含了聯準會的鴿派言論(實際上是聯準會主席鮑威爾對購債的評論)及因為強勁經濟復甦為美國帶來的強力就業數據。全球新冠疫情確診數略有下降,這也讓投資人在原本平靜的8月份有較積極的表現。

固定收益方面,公司債的總報酬在本月月底為負,英國和歐洲信貸的損失與美國相比更大。高收益債券是本月唯一獲得正報酬的固定收益資產,反映風險偏好普遍上升,尤其又以信評較低的泛歐市場表現出色。

在核心政府債券中,美國公債、英國公債和德國公債在8月份的總報酬為負,殖益率小幅上升。

8月份基金表現持平,政府債券殖利率上升對大多數債券資產產生負面影響。本基金的股票曝險有一定的好處,因為本基金持有高收益債券。由於利差保持不變,投資級公司債券的貢獻大致持平。 相對而言,我們的短存續期部位因為殖利率上升,對整體基金有正面貢獻。另一方面,減少持有高收益債券有負面貢獻,但我們認為這已被基金對股票的配置所抵消。

投組調整:

進入2021年的最後幾個月,我們將削減美元投資級信貸的曝險,並提高歐洲金融業曝險,因為我們認為經濟基本面和評價仍然相對有吸引力。

至於我們對投資組合中利率風險的看法,我們認為更高的經濟成長和未來更高的通膨,將會使得政府債券感到壓力。 因此,投資組合的存續期間維持在2.3年。

股票方面,我們出售了一些個股,例如羅氏和思科系統,它們表現良好,也因此相對來說,兩間公司股票相對於債券不再便宜。目前我們的股權曝險接近4.5%-5%。

在政府債券方面,由於實際殖利率降至-2%以下,我們減少了通貨膨脹率連結債券的曝險。 另一方面,我們增加了實際殖利率看起來更具吸引力的日本通膨連結債券。目前我們通膨連結債券的曝險比例約為 5%。

最後,我們正在逐漸增加我們的高收益曝險(但仍低配17%-18%的曝險,而中性權重為33.3%),因為我們認為在穩健的總體經濟前景下,應該會保持低違約率,從而支持資產類別。

 
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