【收益優化】2021年6月基金評論

市場現況:

本月對於金融市場而言表現正向,主要因政府債券的收益率普遍較低,使追求風險溢酬的投資者需要購買更多的公司債。強勁的經濟數據、而寬鬆的貨幣政策和多數央行對於短期高通膨率的看法,有助於穩定投資者對於六月份風險資產的偏好。同時,疫苗的施打仍繼續穩定進行。

隨著越來越多的經濟體重新開放,石油的價格漲幅最為強勁—美國股市和一些新興市場股市也因此受惠。隨著市場通膨壓力有所減輕,黃金和白銀的價格(用於物價上漲的避險)價格自三月以來首次下降。

談到固定收益市場,公司債的總報酬本月處於正值,尤其是美元投資級債表現良好,這使英國和歐洲市場表現相對較差。高收益債券本月也有正的總報酬,美國高收益債表現優於泛歐洲市場,與四月和五月相似。

在核心政府債券中,美國、英國和德國國債均在六月份取得了正的報酬,儘管仍受年初至今的表現拖累。本月央行多發表相當溫和的言論,加上美國就業數據仍不夠出色,似乎冷卻了市場對升息的焦慮,政府債券價格因此上漲。

本基金的正收益主要來自於美元投資級債券部位,以及我們持續減少長天期債券部位。本基金的股票部位也增加了績效。相對於基準指數,我們的較低存續期間的特性隨著核心政府債券價格的上漲,成為降低績效的負面因素。然而,我們投資於股票的部位,特別是週期性公司股票抵銷了這方面的不足,因為它們在本月份表現有不錯的表現。

部位調整:

2021年的關鍵議題在於優質公司債的估值上升,而這是我們已研究數年的資產類別。因此,我們一直在調整部位,主要是減少美元計價的長期投資級債,並購買一些以歐元計價的資產,期限介於 5 至 10 年。根據我們的內部信用分析師的說法,我們已經看到某些研究提供不錯的估值。

談到我們對投資組合內利率風險(存續期間)的看法,我們認為更高的經濟成長和未來更高的通膨將對政府債券施加進一步的壓力,尤其是長天期殖利率曲線。因此,我們將投資組合維持在較低的存續期間,約為 2.6 年。

雖然基金仍然持有較少的高收益債券(15-16% 的風險部位與 33.3% 的中性權重),我們仍使用衍生商品增加了高收益債部位。因為在風險調整的基礎上,我們認為高收益債與投資級別債券相比看起來更具吸引力,因此縮減了低於權重的比例。

在股票部位中,我們也在尋找一些投資機會,特別是在信用利差持續收緊的情況下。這也是我們增持 HSBC 和 Orange 等股票的原因,同時我們在投資組合中也增加了 AT&T 等新股票。目前,股票部位約為 5.5%,而當中占比最高的股票約為 20%。

最後,除了增加現有的義大利政府債券和部位外,我們在政府債券方面沒有重大的變動,約佔投資組合的 33%。

展望未來,我們將繼續對信用資產保持積極性。強勁的經濟復甦加上寬鬆的貨幣政策應將公司債券的違約率保持在較低水平,從而支持利差。另一方面,我們對存續期間保持謹慎,因為我們認為更高的經濟成長和更高的通膨率(我們認為通膨不會是暫時現象)可能會進一步加劇政府債券收益率面臨壓力。

 
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