【收益優化】2020年10月基金評論

市場現況:

逐漸增加的確診案例使許多歐洲國家的封鎖措施,加上財政刺激措施的談判僵持,導致本月大多數風險性資產震盪。預期美國總統大選的後續消息會加劇投資人的不安感。因此,許多人從歐洲股市和原油轉向新興市場資產和核心政府債券:德國、西班牙和義大利的政府債券都表現不錯。儘管在「風險趨避」的環境,但由於供給增加,美國公債下跌,因民調顯示拜登可能會在11月的大選中獲勝。然而,美國經濟好轉,強勁的成長和就業數據顯示,經濟復甦的速度比許多人預期的還要快。同時,由於投資人對英國脫歐貿易協議的進度感到擔憂,英國公債表現不佳。

在本月廣泛進行「風險趨避」的背景下,投資級公司債實際上被證明具有相當的彈性,而估值也沒有劇烈變化。然而,歐洲公司債的績效大勝美國及英國公司債,因為有跡象表明歐洲央行將來會擴大購買歐洲公司債而受到拉抬。

貨幣方面,人民幣和日圓兌美元匯率上漲,而歐元下跌,因為大多數地區的確診案例上升,在法國和德國尤其明顯,兩國在本月都宣布了第二次封鎖措施。

本基金在絕對和相對方面均有良好績效,鑑於投資級公司債的偏差和減持其存續期間的部位。

BBB評級的美國和英國公司的績效優於評級較高的公司,也對基金績效有所貢獻。我們對英國公債和美國公債的謹慎看法是10月份正報酬的另一個原因(故我們減碼利率曝險,而存續期間來自歐元資產)。

本月股票部位小幅拖累績效,歐洲股市主要指數的表現使投資人不安。

投組調整:

波動度的增加,使投資級債和高收益債有了特定的投資機會。因此,我們增加了信用風險,儘管我們保持了非常高的流動性:約有35%的投資組合為無風險政府債券和現金,這讓我們有能力應對可能的波動。

本月的買進主要集中於初級市場,我們在其中買進了波音飛機以及埃克森美孚和通用電氣發行的長期債券。

高收益債中,我們買進兩家公司:在初級市場的Rolls Royce和次級市場的Ardagh。總體而言,對比於中性配置的33.3%,我們維持高收益債的曝險部位為12%。

儘管本月增加了一些信用風險,但我們仍然維持較高的政府債券和現金部位。本月,我們從年初在初級市場購買的10年期巴西債券獲利。我們買入我們認為具有很高價值的巴哈馬群島債券。

我們的存續期間為2.5年,仍然比基準低了約4年。我們的存續期間大部分來自德國公債,該國公債在本月表現明顯優於美國公債。

股票方面,我們出售了英國電信(BT),並減少了對SSE公司(英國一家能源公司)的投資,同時買進葛蘭素史克(GlaxoSmithKline)。整體曝險為3%,與歷史平均維持一致。

 
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