市場現況:

五月份,投資人觀望經濟數據是否表現良好,以此了解經濟重啟和疫苗施打進度是否帶來實質上的效益。良好的經濟數據可能表示公司營收反彈強勁,且對原物料的需求大,但這也可能導致通膨上升與升息進度提前。本月,投資人似乎認為經濟數據佳較有可能是受到前者的激勵,因此許多股市表現強勁,部分達到歷史新高。當美國通膨率高於預期時,股市有所震盪,但接近月底時,聯準會官員表示通膨上升將會是暫時的,使通膨擔憂減緩。聯準會官員不斷強調,雖然預期通膨會上升,但這會是過渡性的,且不會因此而調升利率,這番談話可能有達到安撫的效果。

經濟將會強勁反彈的預期支撐商品價格,如油價和銅價,因此成為本月表現最好的資產。這也反映在天然資源豐富國家的股市和匯市,如俄羅斯、巴西和南非。銀行類股也持續走升,尤其是在歐洲地區。五月份,股市獲利主要由新興市場貢獻,如義大利、中國和歐洲其他地區。然而,以科技業為主的那斯達克指數為主要拖累者,因為市場對其偏好仍較低,另外,日本也拖累績效表現。

固定收益市場表現趨平,美國與英國公債價格微幅上升,德國公債則價格下降。債券市場波動也不大,其中,新興市場債券表現較佳。

本月匯市波動較大,美元本月仍表現疲軟,兌英鎊與歐元皆貶值。

五月份,基金報酬為正,儘管歐元兌美元升值。本基金超過70%的投組是以歐元計價或避險,雖然錯過美元大幅貶值的機會,但避險策略是有效的。

股票部位是基金主要貢獻者,尤其是歐洲的銀行類股。一些美國股票和加拿大銀行類股也表現良好。亞洲部分,韓國持股所帶來的正報酬被中國股票的疲軟表現抵銷。

新興市場債券也為基金帶來正報酬,例如南非債券價格受南非蘭特走強提振。墨西哥債券價格也微幅上升,而智利債券因披索走弱而價格下跌。

主要政府公債為基金最大拖累者,美國政府公債有微幅正報酬,但卻受美元疲軟而抵銷。

由於經濟復甦狀況明朗,投資者在思考接下來會發生什麼。從GDP、採購經理人指數(PMI)、零售銷售指數等經濟數據來看,經濟復甦會持續,也增加投資人對通膨的預期。雖然政府與央行仍維持政策不變,但最終,就業補助計畫將會退出,而將會開始討論縮減購債規模(Taper)。

在此狀況下,我們仍偏好景氣循環類股,但利用長天期美國公債來分散風險,而長天期美國公債也能帶來不錯的收益。

部位調整:

有鑑於經濟增長很可能會繼續反彈,且短期內美國大幅提高利率的可能性很小,因此,我們認為將投資組合的曝險定為中性至略微為正向仍然是適當的。而這意味著它將受益於股市的進一步上漲。我們將持有的股票、公司債券和新興市場政府債券的風險與長天期美國政府債券的風險進行平衡,我們認為這將使資產多元化並且順利度過風險偏好惡化的時期。五月份,我們沒有調整投組,不過準備好在未來動盪但具有投資機會的情況下,做出動態調整。

 
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