【入息】2021年3月基金評論

市場現況:

三月份,大部分風險性資產表現優異,股市上漲。投資人預期疫苗施打進展樂觀與更多政府政策支持(特別是在美國),會加速經濟復甦。

儘管公債殖利率繼續上升,股價仍強勁,投資人持續評估通膨壓力是否會被較高的利率抵銷。央行重申會容忍較高的通膨率,直到經濟成長恢復與失業率下降至目標水準。

全球經濟復甦速度不一。受德國和義大利帶動,歐洲股市上漲,雖然疫苗施打進度各國不同,且法國和德國實施更嚴格的封鎖禁令。英國和美國股市也表現良好。另一方面,部分亞洲股市走跌,尤其是中國,由於投資人擔心政策的收緊與美中緊張關係升溫。

銀行類股受較高的殖利率推動而表現優異,儘管因美國避險基金爆倉事件而使投資人產生疑慮。相反地,較高殖利率對成長型公司帶來衝擊,由於未來營收將會以更高數字折現,代表科技業將會表現不佳。本月價值股表現優於成長股。

美國公債價格下跌,起因於投資人評估1.9兆的美國援助計畫法案(American Rescue Plan)帶來的影響,使10年期與30年期公債殖利率上升至2020年3月以來新高。這也影響了美國公司債的表現。新興市場債本月也表現落後。歐洲政府公債和公司債表現較佳,其中高收益債表現優於投資級債。

3月份,本基金上漲,主要受到投組股票推升,大部分持有的股票皆上漲。其中,最大貢獻來自於美國股票。日本以及英國的公司,與歐洲銀行類股也為基金帶來正貢獻。非主要政府公債本月貢獻持平,疲軟的表現受貨幣升值抵銷,特別是在南非和墨西哥。本基金較長天期的美國政府公債拖累表現,因為市場考量通貨膨脹對債券的影響。

在新冠疫情爆發的一年後,全球經濟逐漸復甦。經濟重啟,且受貨幣與財政政策支撐,伴隨著疫苗施打進度推進。美國復甦程度似乎領先,但全國復甦速度不一致,而歐洲復甦落後,而這都取決於刺激政策的規模與疫苗施打進程。在歐洲,一些國家重新實施封鎖政策,而美國與英國正重啟經濟。

確實,美國大規模的刺激政策有可能會導致經濟過熱和推升通膨,所以抗通膨的力量歷久不衰。

整體來看,我們無法確定通膨是否會發生,與何時會發生。美國聯準會承諾,只要經濟有復甦需求,就會繼續維持低利率,即使通膨率上升至2%以上。聯準會將持續監控通膨率,且在它對經濟產生威脅時,仍有許多工具來做出調整。我們認為,美國基準利率不太可能在短期內大幅上調。

部位調整:

三月份股市表現強勁,我們決定藉由減持美國、加拿大、日本和歐洲的銀行類股,來降低金融類股的占比。我們將部分資金用來增持新興市場政府公債。近期,美國公債殖利率上升影響非主要政府公債的表現,而我們尋求在價格相對便宜時,買進哥倫比亞、智利和墨西哥的政府公債。此外,我們也微幅加碼長天期政府公債,因為可以在市場避險情緒升高時,達到風險分散。

本基金投組為中性而微幅曝險,我們認為此操作可以在股市持續上漲時獲利。同時,本基金的股票投組較為分散,並減持銀行與日本相關類股。

 
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