【巴西】最新市場評論

通膨大軍殺到,巴西股市有挑戰?巴西通膨目前超過8%,升息勢在必行。巴西央行升息8/4宣布將指標利率上調100個基點,自上次4.25%調升至5.25%,創下2003年以來最大升幅。


通膨大軍殺到,巴西股市有挑戰?巴西通膨目前超過8%,升息勢在必行。巴西央行升息8/4宣布將指標利率上調100個基點,自上次4.25%調升至5.25%,創下2003年以來最大升幅。

巴西央行預期,2021全年通膨將達6.5%,明年則會降至3.5%、後年續減至3.2%;今年底及明年指標利率將上升至7%,後年則會降至6.5%。市場也預期,下一次利率會議(9月)升息可能性極高,顯示巴西央行努力擊退通膨的決心。

投資展望

瀚亞巴西基金經理人林志映認為,無論是服務業或綜合PMI指數均呈現擴張,產出、就業增加快速,新出口訂單連續增加5個月,製造商預期信心也上升至6個月高點。

目前巴西疫情略為降溫,加快疫苗施打,目標在年底前完成全國人口第一劑接種,經濟情況也陸續回到正常水準。由於經濟復甦腳步快於預期,市場流動性充足,且政府提供補助措施,今年可望上修GDP。

目前通膨來到相對高點,巴西自3月份以來啟動升息循環,基準利率自2%的歷史低點上調,此次升息循環可能持續至2022年年初。依據過去升息期間經驗,股市相對受到壓抑,但匯率可望持穩。

股市表現可觀察鐵礦砂等相關原物料報價與出口,做為觀察指標。除了疫情、通膨等不確定性,2022年巴西大選也將是巴西股市的不確定因素之一。

結論與建議

整體來看,巴西第三波疫情略為降溫,整體經濟復甦快於預期,通膨已來到相對高點,預期央行升息循環將至明年初,在稅改題材、巴西總統大選等多空因素影響下,股市區間向上的可能性高,但仍不能輕忽短線市場震盪,投資建議宜採取定期定額策略,拉長持有期間。

基金投資操作策略,相對配置於大型股為主,目前投資組合約84%布局於市值逾超過100億美元的大型股,避開可能有較大劇烈震盪的中小型股;產業方面,加碼工業、循環消費類股,減碼醫療、能源及原物料。

 
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