【亞洲債券】2021年2月基金評論

市場總覽:

長天期債券殖利率持續上升,2月份全球債市下跌幅度擴大。與全球政府債券相比,亞洲美元債市的表現落後。近一個月,摩根亞洲債券指數下跌0.79%。

2月份十年期公債殖利率上升34個基點(至1.40%),為2016年末以來的最大單月漲幅,殖利率上升也導致債券在2月遭到拋售。市場普遍認為,在經濟活動強勁反彈的情況下,投資人對於通貨膨脹的預期越來越高,並且擔憂央行將收回超寬鬆貨幣政策,這些因素推升債券殖利率。不過,由於聯準會預計在2023年之前維持政策利率不變,因此本月的短期利率仍然保持穩定。

與高收益債相比,亞洲投資級債存續期間長,因此遭到拋售。美元利率的波動也導致更多的投資者在一個月內從存續期間較長的債券轉換為較短的債券。然而,投資級公司債的債券利差收緊有助於減輕高殖利率的影響。在公司債中,金屬與礦業和基礎建設公司債券維持平穩,而科技、媒體及通訊業受長天期債券影響持續表現不佳。其他表現不佳的債券還包括印尼和菲律賓主權債。

2月份,高收益公司債上漲,然而,負面新聞導致一些影響,華夏幸福公司(China Fortune Land)拖欠其2021年到期的美元債消息,拉低了中國高收益房地產類股的整體表現,尤其是那些信用狀況較弱的債券。另一方面,印尼高收益房地產債券表現佳,主要由於政府採取扶持性的政策措施,包含印尼銀行放寬貸款成數及抵押貸款的要求。

基金總覽:

2月份,基金加碼高收益公司債帶來主要正貢獻,抵消其由於存續期間較長而造成的損失。產業方面,基金加碼印尼高收益房地產帶來正貢獻。由於基金加碼印尼準主權債,獲利有助緩解基金的損失,中國準主權及地方政府債也影響當月的表現。

未來展望:

由於投資人對於經濟復甦較樂觀,且通膨的預期越來越高,全球利率快速上升。然而,對更高通膨的擔憂似乎為時過早,但多數主要經濟體的通膨率仍然適中,值得注意的是,中國1月份整體消費者物價指數(CPI)年減0.3%。美國核心消費者物價指數在1月份連續第二個月保持不變,也表明通貨膨脹率較低。聯準會和歐洲央行也聲明繼續保持貨幣政策寬鬆並維持其量化寬鬆政策。

儘管短期利率市場波動,我們認為近期的走勢過度反映。然而,長期通縮趨勢和較大的全球產出缺口可望使通膨壓力進一步緩解。我們預期,當美國公債殖利率穩定時,投資人對收益的需求將延伸至亞洲債券。在流動性保持充裕的情況下,亞洲債券所提供的收益優勢及強勁的增長潛力將持續吸引投資人。然而,中國更嚴格的融資條件可能會影響那些體質較弱的公司。

因此,我們維持加碼高收益公司債。我們預計高收益債券的表現將優於大盤,因為較高的利差收斂空間可為近期美元利率上行壓力提供緩衝。

然而,由於越來越多的公債在市場上販售以及利差擴大,我們開始看到一些較長期的公司債券估值偏低,我們可能會考慮增持此類債券並延長基金的利差存續期間。因為,在通貨膨脹預期不斷變化以及亞洲債市的供給仍有疑慮之際,美國公債殖利率可能將持續上升。

 
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