中國市場六問

在本文中,瀚亞投資上海股票投資總監齊晧為投資人解答了六大熱門問題,其中包括:為何主動式投資能夠跑贏中國A股基準指數?哪些因素支撐了中期市場前景?股票投資人是否應該擔心債券殖利率上升?

1. 超過半數的基金似乎都跑贏了中國A股基準指數。這是因為市場效率低下嗎?

中國A股市場在一定程度上存在低效率的問題。究其原因,部分是因為許多中國國內散戶投資人的短視行為。鑒於市場參與者中有大量散戶,這一特徵便催生了獲取阿爾法收益的機會,進而為戰略投資者和長期投資者帶來回報。

同時,主動式投資之所以能夠跑贏基準指數也可以歸因於中國A股指數的構成。過去兩年以來,成長型股票的表現一直優於價值型股票,但金融股,這一在MSCI中國A股指數和滬深300指數中占比均超20%的價值型板塊的落後表現拖累了指數。

2. 投資人為何應該考慮投資中國A股?

中國境內股票市場為投資人提供了更全面的中國新經濟板塊的投資機會,同時也為投資人提供了離岸市場所沒有的某些板塊(如白酒)的獨有投資機會。通過中國境內投資,投資人還可以受益於人民幣強勢。我們預計,隨著中國A股在全球股票基準指數中權重的上升,中國境內市場將繼續吸引外資流入。另外,滬港通、深港通也有助於境外投資人進入中國股市。 

3. 中國A股市場是2020年表現最好的股票市場之一。其漲勢能否延續?

中國是唯一在2020年實現GDP正增長的經濟體。我們認為,中國正在進行的結構性改革及其龐大的消費市場,將繼續為全球投資人帶來引人注目的投資機會。長期來看,由於相對於中國經濟規模而言,中國A股市場在MSCI新興市場指數中的權重仍然較小,我們預計將有更多外資流入中國A股市場。人民幣前景看好也將讓中國資產更具吸引力。

中國國內方面,2019年央行對中國城鎮家庭資產的調查顯示,實物資產(如房產)占城鎮家庭資產的80%左右。隨著中國資本市場的持續發展,我們可以預期,由於人均收入的提高,對房地產價格上漲的預期有所緩和,以及無風險利率維持在相對較低的水準,中國家庭將增加對中國股票資產的配置。這將有助於在中長期內支撐中國A股市場。

然而,中國A股市場2020年的強勁表現導致市場交易價格比其長期平均水準高出一個標準差1。因此,就短期而言,市場回報將更多來自於基本面改善,如盈利增長,而非估值進一步擴張。

4. 股票投資人是否需要擔心近期債券殖利率的上升?

隨著海外疫苗接種的不斷推進,疫情防控整體呈現出穩中向上的態勢。2021年會是全球經濟復甦的一年。IMF預測全球GDP成長會從2020年的-3.5%反彈至5.5%。隨著經濟基本面的改善,疫情期間極度寬鬆的貨幣政策也會逐步退出,回歸常態化。

無風險利率的水準和變化趨勢將影響股票市場估值,尤其是過去12個月股票市場估值攀升後更是如此。

雖然美債殖利率的上升反映了投資者對經濟復甦走強和通膨上升的預期,但美聯準會目前不太可能希望看到過度激進的上升,進而破壞利率波動敏感行業的復甦,也不會希望造成金融市場的極端波動,損害消費者信心。因此,我們或將看到,美聯準會嘗試通過溝通手段來調和債券殖利率的上升。

此外,由於中國年初幾個月的資料真空期也導致投資人難以評估中國經濟的真實狀況。這或許會引起額外的市場波動。一二月份的宏觀資料在二月過後匯總發佈。我們認為,隨著未來幾個月更多資料的公佈,基本面的不斷改善將為投資人帶來機遇。由於疫情期間的人流管控限制了春節期間的出行量,預計國內生產能力的快速恢復將提振中國經濟運行和企業利潤。隨著全球疫苗接種量增加,外部需求的全面復甦也將對中國企業盈利產生積極影響。 

5. 您的團隊目前在中國A股市場中發現了哪些機會?主要風險是什麼?

我們關注結構性主題投資機會,如創意和創新、人口老齡化及消費升級。我們認為,這些主題提供了良好的長期投資機會。我們也會密切關注利率變動敏感性較低的板塊,以及那些受益於利率上升、再通膨的板塊,從中尋找投資機會。

我們認為,貨幣政策微調將是市場面臨的主要挑戰之一。過早的貨幣政策緊縮,可能會給經濟帶來下行風險,但保持貨幣政策寬鬆的時間過長,則可能會導致經濟和市場過熱。在穩定短期增長和推動結構性改革之間尋求平衡,也將是一項棘手的任務。如果經濟增長放緩過快,也可能會拖慢改革的進程。其他外部挑戰則來自於中美關係及其對關稅和科技行業的潛在影響。

6. 如何理解「雙迴圈」的含義,對於投資有何啟示?

2020年5月,中央政治局常務委員會會議首次提出“雙迴圈”模式。當時,中國經歷了長達兩年的中美貿易緊張局勢升級,對美出口出現了兩位數下跌。受疫情影響,中國經濟在2020年第一季度也曾下降6.8%,這是近20年來中國首度出現且是最大幅度的經濟下滑。在此背景下,「雙迴圈」模式具有戰略意義。其旨在通過促進中國國內需求和提升供應鏈韌性,減少中國對海外市場和技術的依賴。

在這一框架下,中國國內迴圈作為核心支柱,與國際迴圈一起推動中國經濟結構轉型。具體而言,中國計畫通過「十四五」規劃中提到的需求側改革來提升國內家庭消費能力。這將使中國利用其巨大的消費市場,幫助促進國內產業升級和技術自主。

Sources:
1 12-month forward price to earnings ratio.
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