2021年投資展望-中國科技股和ESG

全球投資主題爭奇鬥艷,誰能在2021勝出?瀚亞投資(中國)股票投資總監齊晧認為,中國半導體、新能源汽車和自動化技術等,長遠將締造中國股市強勁的盈利成長。瀚亞投資(新加坡)固定收益團隊成員Tan Yong Han認為,亞洲存在具吸引力的ESG投資機會,預期到2025年,可再生能源的新增投資額將達到2,500億美元。

Q1、中國欲將科技自立自強作為國家發展「戰略支撐」,對投資人有何啟示?

瀚亞投資(中國)股票投資總監齊晧:科技創新是推動中國未來十年結構轉型的主要因素,亦是投資策略的核心主題。

過去,中國仰賴著低勞工成本而成為世界工廠,當時製造業產品包括勞工密集型和低增值產品。隨著「人口紅利」漸退,中國政府意識到發展新成長引擎的重要性,也就是-科技創新。中國政府推出龐大政策支持(包括稅務優惠和補貼)及公司的創業精神推動下,企業增加研發開支,在價值鏈(Value Chain)逐步升級。

由於中美貿易和科技緊張關係,中國企業被迫增加依賴本土供應商,政府推出優惠政策以扶持國家行業,資金流向具成長潛力和投資報酬的行業。此外,新冠肺炎疫情爆發有助提高中國作為可靠供應商的信譽。憑藉全面的供應鏈生態系統和有效的疫情防控管理,中國製造商比大部份國家更快恢復生產,從全球競爭對手中獲得高增值產品的市占率。

我們認為,中國製造業產能的科技提升和國產化替代(domestic substitution)的兩大趨勢,將在未來十年蓬勃發展。

目前,中國機械、半導體、新能源汽車、軟件和自動化技術等多個行業,早已出現國產化替代的趨勢。這些行業的龍頭企業將憑藉自身的競爭優勢,以及中國獨特的供應鏈動態和龐大的本土市場,從而受惠於規模經濟效益,長遠取得強勁的盈利成長。

Q2、科技股在疫情期間表現強勁,是否已不再是增長股,而是防禦股?

齊晧:並非所有科技公司均可一概而論,部份未受到疫情衝擊或影響程度輕微,因此這些公司股票可被視為具防禦性。反觀,部分公司則明顯受惠於防疫封鎖措施,包括電玩遊戲平台、出版商、線上會議平台、遠距工作應用程式開發商、電子商務和網路串流網站。這些公司在疫情期間加速成長,基本面強勁支持其前景。

科技創新也為投資人在其他行業創造投資機會。舉例,電動出行相關產業(尤其是電動車和新能源汽車)受惠於技術提升,使鋰離子電池成本下降,2020年蓬勃發展,2021年繼續看好,因為大眾對清潔能源的關注漸增,將使運輸出現永久電氣化的轉變。見圖。此外,科技升級和無線晶片、顯示器和電池的小型化技術,使智能手錶和真無線耳機等設備融入消費者的日常生活當中,而且沒有被取代的顯著跡象。

圖:中國新能源小客車-每月銷量(以千計)及滲透率中國新能源乘用車-每月銷量(以千計)及滲透率

Q3、中國科技公司2021年可能有哪些風險?

齊晧:潛在的監管限制,可能對中國科技未來成長構成風險。中國政府最近就網路行業公布反壟斷法,值得注意的是,就算是淘寶(阿里巴巴)等中國大型電子商務企業,仍然面對來自京東和拼多多等其他電商平台激烈競爭。與美國差異在於,當地個別電商平台可擁有近乎壟斷的地位,包括廣泛的全球業務。

隨著科技企業規模擴大,且中國整體經濟重要性不斷提升,我們認為政府將致力取得平衡,在遏止企業壟斷行為和管理新風險的同時,不至於扼殺推動科技業發展的創意和創新技術。畢竟,許多現有的科技公司已成為中國社會不可或缺的一部份。

Q4、亞洲各國處於不同的環境、社會及公司治理(ESG)階段,如何在ESG框架中評估亞洲各地的公司?投資機會和挑戰何在?

瀚亞投資(新加坡)固定收益債券經理Tan Yong Han亞洲國家各具多元性,不同國家企業面對的ESG風險也大不相同,同一項ESG風險的重要性自然也不盡相同。因此,考慮當地法規、經濟發展階段、政府政策、管理標準、消費者偏好和社會認知等因素,辨識每個國家/行業的重大ESG風險是重要一環。 

相較於開發中國家,已開發國家往往有較嚴格的環保法規,對綠色倡議較支持,並對工作場所安全和社會健康訂立較高標準,以及對數據安全風險的容忍程度較低,消費者亦較偏好優質產品/服務。此外,在企業或財務法規、上市或報告要求、投資者保障或破產法以及會計準則尚未完善的國家,或在有關法規或標準的合規情況和執行能力較低的國家,治理風險可能較普遍。

隨著監管轉變、運作模式演變(自動化技術提升將降低勞工相關風險,而數位化發展則加劇數據安全風險)或政府政策出現變動,上述風險的重要性或會隨著時間而改變。舉例來說,若某公司在一個幾乎沒有水資源污染法規的國家興建化工廠,在河流傾倒化學副產品,面對處罰或訴訟的風險極低。然而,隨著政府推行環保政策,上述風險的重要性可能改變。若該公司不論有關風險是否重大仍採取負責任的行動,把副產品循環再用,並從一開始便制定適當的廢物處理程序,該公司受法規變化的影響將遠較沒有採取這些措施的同業輕微。

就挑戰而言,目前環境風險和影響方面,沒有固定的衡量方法。不同國家對可持續發展報告的規定各異,報告詳細程度亦可能存在重大差別。當地環保標準亦會有所不同,包括對綠色建築的評級,難以比較不同國家情況。 

投資機會方面,我們認為亞洲的經濟增長強勁,加上政府政策支持,成為吸引的ESG投資主題。舉例而言,可再生能源投資讓韓國、中國和印度已經出現相關產業領導企業。預期2025年前,亞太區可再生能源的新增投資額最高可達2,500億美元,意味未來數年,亞洲將存在龐大的ESG投資機會。根據可再生能源領域的投資和推行機會,對各國進行排名的可再生能源國家吸引力指數(Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index,RECAI)1,中國、印度和日本在亞洲國家中排名最高,足證亞洲ESG投資前景可觀。

Sources:
1 RECAI Index by Ernst and Young Global Limited

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