2020年對比2014-15年: 中國市場反彈的四個不同

與2014年底至2015年的牛市相比,中國市場當前升勢背後的宏觀經濟、貨幣及流動性狀況截然不同。此外,內部改革與外部壓力已增強中國經濟的對抗能力,促使其加快結構性變革,並建立新的增長動力。隨著中國的新經濟型態初見規模,市場將湧現更多與中國新經濟相關的投資機遇會,讓率先參與其中的主動型投資者獲益。

年初至今1,中國滬深300指數揚升10%,領先區內及全球其他市場。在升市備受關注的同時,近期中資券商股表現強勁,自6月底以來上升17%,令人矚目2。上述走勢可令部份投資者回想起,中國曾在2014年出現亮麗的牛市,當時券商股的股價亦飆升。由於2014年的牛市在翌年夏季戛然而止,投資者是否應對當前升市更為審慎?比較2014年的牛市與當前升市,我們留意到有四個不同之處。 

總體經濟背景

回顧2014年,中國經濟以24年來最緩慢的步伐增長,自1998年起首次未能實現中國政府的增長目標;事實上,這是中國經濟增幅自1990年以來首次低於7.6%。事後看來,2014年或許標誌著中國快速增長的時期結束,因為中國正轉型至更可持續的經濟模式,減少依賴固定資產投資、低端製造業及信貸擴張。

時至今日,中國經濟在2020年第二季強勢反彈(按年增長3.2%),扭轉第一季因疫情而引致的收縮(按年下降6.8%)。中國經濟復甦不僅超越市場普遍預期(彭博通訊社調查:1.9%;萬得調查:2.9%),隨著需求及活動回復正常,經濟料將於2020年下半年進一步回升。

貨幣政策

為刺激經濟,中國人民銀行(人行)由2014年底開始降息。在2015年上半年,人行下調利率與存款準備金率各三次。隨著無風險利率下跌,承險意欲上升,估值比率亦見擴張。人行在2014年底首次降息,為新一輪貨幣寬鬆週期揭開序幕,刺激券商股揚升。

儘管中國在2019年再度開展貨幣寬鬆週期,但實際上是加大改革力度,促進利率自由化的一環。人行在2019年8月規定,新造企業貸款須參照經修訂的基準利率(貸款市場報價利率)定價。貸款市場報價利率追踪銀行向最優質客戶提供的貸款利率。貸款市場報價利率與人行向貸款人收取的一年期現金利率(中期借貸便利)掛鈎。人行希望透過連結市場利率與官方利率,改善傳導機制同時降低借貸成本。兩個時期不僅在貨幣寬鬆機制和性質上存在差異,券商股在2014年上揚,原因是人行首次降息,但當前升勢只是源於券商股近期在中國處於貨幣寬鬆週期後段之際展現動力。

流動資金來源

在2014年至2015年期間,流入市場的新資金主要來自保證金融資、網上平台的保證金融資貸款,以及附槓桿融資工具的結構性信託。借鑑過往經驗,中國監管機構在這次升市期間對保證金融資貸款工具嚴加管控。同時,我們觀察到,來自股市互聯互通機制及機構投資者的資金流入強勁,反映這次流入中國股市的資金或許更優質,且更具「黏性」。

經濟發展

自2015年以來,中國經歷重大的經濟轉型。在過往五年,中國政府已實施供給側改革,致力推動金融去槓桿,並駕馭中美兩國之間的緊張關係。這些內部改革與外部壓力已增強中國經濟的抗逆力,促使其加快結構性變革,並建立新的增長動力。面對新冠肺炎疫情帶來前所未有的挑戰,中國新經濟已跨步前行。

新冠肺炎可能出現新一波疫情,加上中美關係持續緊張等不明朗因素,可能令中國總體經濟前景蒙上陰霾,並在短期內導致市場波動。不過,長遠而言,即使中國經濟繼續減慢至以更可持續的步伐增長,但我們相信市場將湧現更多與中國新經濟相關的投資機會。此外,面對總體經濟環境不明朗,頂級公司仍能實現穩定增長的能力將變得更為關鍵。主動型投資者能夠早著先機,率先物色新興趨勢和基本因素出色的優質公司,或可從中獲得可觀回報。

1 As of 27 July 2020. In USD terms. Bloomberg.
2 As of 27 July 2020. In CNY terms. Wind
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